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MTG warns GOP ‘will lose the House’ in midterms without addressing cost of living
(www.independent.co.uk)
this post was submitted on 20 Oct 2025
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She does have a point. Republicans may be doing everything they can to rig the districts to keep their majority, but that district-rigging is based on historical trends regarding where likely partisan voters are. It can very easily backfire if there is a shift in the electorate.
What I am hoping for is that Republicans get thoroughly trounced in the midterms, so badly that the nerds realize that Republicans would have been better off with the old maps.
But that isnt really all that likely, is it?
Going from memory of looking at some statistical analysis of Proposition 50 in California, the Democratic gerrymandering-because-Texas-is-Republican-gerrymandering ballot item, the California Democrats sought to create districts where they maintained a ten percentage point lead. I dunno what the Republican states are doing, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's comparable. Just to give some idea of the margin one might be talking about.
Republicans have been gerrymandering hard for decades. While democrats did some, they didn't go at it with the same gusto. The result is many dem states have a lot more room for error on future gerrymandering. A lot of Republican created districts have fallen under that 10% margin. This could have a significant impact on an election if they lower these margins even more during a wave.
That's in california where they have margin to play with. In texas, there's a lot less wiggle room and some analysis I saw when they were pushing theirs through suggested (based on mid-cycle elections) that the resultant maps were actually going to result in +5 D seats. Treat the above as me making stuff up though because I can't find that source now :(