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The state of affairs for Russian oil refineries - which ones are on fire - which ones are next?
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this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2025
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that tally is wildly optimistic. last time i've checked, one of latest strikes, the one on kirishi, disabled some 30% of capacity (it's too big of facility to have only one oil processing stream, so there are two in parallel. the one disabled had a bit under half of capacity, and the other one is using all slack capacity it had) and only for a month or two. some of strikes listed are from year+ ago
even with that, some 20% of oil processing capability is disabled (or was at some point), and further decrease would mean that decline in oil extraction is needed because export of crude and storage can't keep up. which means that some oil wells would get disused, and if these are down for some time they can't get restarted easily
update: salavat refinery was hit like, 2h ago
There is a little bit of fine print about that if you look closely.
yeah, that's the wildly optimistic bit