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this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2025
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I can't imagine China gives a fuck about EU sanctions at this point.
Isn't China's economic model dependent on selling goods to the EU + United States? So in that respect, sanctions do matter to a degree. Snapback allows any JCPOA participant to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran. Said UN sanctions were were why Russia postponed the sale of the S-300P air defence systems to Iran until 2016 when JCPOA was implemented, after they were initially purchased by Iran in 2007. It seems like China and Russia very much care about this, which is why they've proposed a draft resolution that decides to extend for six months, until 18 April 2026, the ten-year term of the JCPOA.
Snapback is not something that can be hand waived away.
Exports to the US accounts for roughly 15% of China's total exports, and just 2% of China's overall GDP. The EU isn't even a blip for China as you can see in the first link. The most trade happens with Germany at whooping 3.1%.
Literally anything the west does at this point can be waved away.
Isn't the current tarrif situation that the US has 30% tarrifs on Chinese goods, and China has 15% on US goods? That BBC article is from April. Please correct it I'm wrong.
As for the first argument, you can't just say that it's only x amount of GDP so it doesn't matter. There's still a ton of factories and jobs involved in making those goods (15% of total exports), and the knock on effects will be much higher than 2% of GDP if trade was completely halted between the USA and China and all those factory workers lost their jobs.
If 18% of total exports are US and Germany, who is going to replace that market? These are developed economies consisting of people earning Dollars and Euros. People in lees developed economies can't buy what US and European consumers buy, they don't have the money. The rest of the world is almost at maximum capacity for Chinese goods anyway, if China does start dumping goods intended for the US and Europe on the rest of the world (the global south and wealthy nations outside of the US and Europe), it would absolutely crush the local industry in these countries, who already struggle to compete with Chinese manufacturing as is.
Well then why aren't China and Russia doing so? With regards to Iran again, it seems as if they very much care about what the west does, hence proposing an extension of the JCPOA. What help did China and Russia offer Iran during the recent war with Israel? If they really thought that anything done by the west could be waived away, why did they not go in and shoot down Israeli aircraft over Iran? Why did they not attempt to stop direct US offensive intervention in bombing Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz? By all accounts Iran was left on it's own here. There were no Su-35s, J-10s, S-400s or HQ-9s shooting down Israeli aircraft, and no attempt to interdict US offensive actions.
China's response is not symmetric. The current situation is that China has choked off rare earths supply to the US and has been cutting off key imports from US entirely. For example, US farmers are now in a crisis because China switched to buying soy beans from Brazil. China has also cut out US energy imports in record time. China is also looking to cut out Nvidia chips.
The point here is that China's dependence on the west is far lower than vice versa. If trade was halted between the US and China then the US economy would literally collapse within months. Meanwhile, for China it would be at most an inconvenience. Your premise that there would be factory closures and job losses is based on the notion that China isn't able to redirect trade and increase domestic consumption. However, we can already see that China's exports beat expectations in July. The reality is that the west is fighting a trade war with the whole world, which pushes countries outside the west to do more trade with China. Modi visiting China right now is a prime example of this dynamic.
The US and Germany are not in a position to cut out Chinese exports. This is why Trump has been consistently extending his tariffs break on China. Meanwhile, it's pretty clear that the rest of the world is not in fact at maximum capacity as evidenced by China's soaring exports outside the west.
What aren't China and Russia doing exactly? Both are trading with Iran defying western sanctions, and both are supplying Iran with military tech. Neither China or Russia has any interest in Iran developing nuclear weapons. This has fuck all to do with JCPOA or any western demands.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/202503044006
Because Iran is a sovereign country and they didn't ask them to do that? I love how you just take all agency away from Iran here.
See above.
What help did Iran ask for?