this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


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Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
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Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
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https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] darkcalling@hexbear.net 50 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago) (1 children)

Pizza index is supposedly really going off right now. Add to it both the zionists and Trump in threatening but very vague ways telling Iranians to leave Tehran and I think by tomorrow evening one of these or more will be true:

  1. The zionists are going to nuke Tehran and by issuing the warning they'll claim they tried to save lives and how moral they are blah, blah, blah. They told Trump and he said fine.

  2. The US is getting involved and attacks tomorrow, massive planed bombings across Tehran, possibly something resembling carpet bombing which Trump has shown a past admiration for in speech at least if not actions. Even if not indiscriminate like carpet bombing likely enough massive strikes by the US on various things including infrastructure and attempts to kill leadership that they expect if people don't flee that hundreds or thousands of civilians will die.

  3. It's a bluff. I don't believe this likely at this point. It could I suppose be a faint designed to make them think they'll get hit there when they intend to hit their nuclear installations first. But it seems like this wouldn't be that effective.

In either case Iran's lack of effective air defense is going to be a real problem. In either case I predict the zionists and US will deploy a cyber-weapon and electronic warfare to bring down what air defense Iran has before they start their attack whether nuclear or conventional.

They intend to kill Kohmeini as well as decapitate the military and civil and religious leadership of Iran to weaken it and finish it off. If the US is getting involved they will pound Iran's nuclear sites with bunker buster after bunker buster, they will hit them continuously for days and at least cause set-backs if not destruction. Decapitation if carried out successfully I think has a good chance of working, not next week but soon enough incompetent or compromised folks will be in charge and blunder or act the way the zionist entity and west want them to act leading to further failures eventually triggering a Syria or Libya style collapse with regional Arab puppet armies sent in along with proxies like MEK, ISIS, etc, maybe even Turkey to lead an on the ground invasion and toppling of remaining problems. This may take months or a year. Hezbollah was taken out of the picture after all by this tactic.

I was reading a piece that speculated the samson option wasn't just nuclear. That noted the zionists develop medical devices, code for all kinds of critical infrastructure and systems and the samson option could be designed to bring the world to its knees. Basically saying the only way for the world to be safe when the zionist entity falls is if the entirety of it is engulfed in multiple overlapping nuclear strikes preventing them from issuing the go code to start it. And I believe they'd do it. And because I believe they'd do that I believe they'd also nuke Tehran and get away with it.

Another speculation I've seen is the zionists will blow up the temple mount/third temple area and blame it on Iran to get the Muslim world angry at Iran and to be able to begin construction on the Jewish third temple prophesied in the bible (thus important to Christian zionists) which leads to the end times. If that were part of the package deal of nuking Tehran America's deranged Evangelicals would take it in a heartbeat as they're desperate for the apocalypse.

I hope everyone stays safe, I hope the US doesn't get involved and I hope nukes are not used but I am getting such a bad feeling about this.

[–] coolusername@hexbear.net 15 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (1 children)

I don't think the US can do much actually. They don't have anything better than f35's, which 3 have already been shot down by Iran. All carriers are sitting ducks and they were warded off by Ansar Allah. Yes, they have good bunker buster bombs, but how much are they willing to sacrifice to be able to use it?

[–] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 6 points 2 hours ago

Have we seen any evidence of the planes being shot down?