this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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chapotraphouse
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I've heard Iran has possibly hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles of varying types. Sure, some of those are going to be old. Operation True promise 1 & 2 mostly used ~30 year old ballistic missiles with a few hypersonics (Fattah-1's IIRC) thrown in for fair warning. Many of the 30 year old missiles penetrated Shitraeli AD. AD batteries aren't magic, and they have a much lower accuracy and success rate than you might think. I think I read reports that the "glorious" Patriot batteries had a per-rocket real-world accuracy of 9-11%, and the US can only produce a handful of those a year. In Ukraine a single Russian drone can cost millions to shoot down. Iran can thow all kinds of cheap drones and old rockets without warheads at the Shitraeli AD to deplete them and leave them exposed.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/true-promise-3-iran-responds-with
In the first video in that link can see how with the hypersonics, the multi-layered Iron Dome / Sling / Arrow systems have almost no chance of interception in the last stage. Iran doesn't necessarily need to just overwhelm in numbers, but newer systems are virtually unstoppable by the "Iron Dome".
Yeah, those reports seem to be fake and used as psychological warfare to try to scare Iranians during the first wave. Reports on the ground say Iran mostly has control of their airspace.