this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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chapotraphouse
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Best scenario is that Iran has more missiles than Israel have interceptors. That should be the case because Iran has been really concentrating on building up their missile stock. Unfortunately they had to neglect their airforce and air defence. Seems like Israel can fly their jets pretty freely inside Iran trying to take out Iranian missile launchers. So far it doesn't seem too successful for Israel since we are still seeing missile raining down on Tel Aviv and Haifa.
I've heard Iran has possibly hundreds of thousands of ballistic missiles of varying types. Sure, some of those are going to be old. Operation True promise 1 & 2 mostly used ~30 year old ballistic missiles with a few hypersonics (Fattah-1's IIRC) thrown in for fair warning. Many of the 30 year old missiles penetrated Shitraeli AD. AD batteries aren't magic, and they have a much lower accuracy and success rate than you might think. I think I read reports that the "glorious" Patriot batteries had a per-rocket real-world accuracy of 9-11%, and the US can only produce a handful of those a year. In Ukraine a single Russian drone can cost millions to shoot down. Iran can thow all kinds of cheap drones and old rockets without warheads at the Shitraeli AD to deplete them and leave them exposed.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/true-promise-3-iran-responds-with
In the first video in that link can see how with the hypersonics, the multi-layered Iron Dome / Sling / Arrow systems have almost no chance of interception in the last stage. Iran doesn't necessarily need to just overwhelm in numbers, but newer systems are virtually unstoppable by the "Iron Dome".
Yeah, those reports seem to be fake and used as psychological warfare to try to scare Iranians during the first wave. Reports on the ground say Iran mostly has control of their airspace.
Israel cannot currently fly jets within Iran proper, however they can hit targets in Iran with stand-off strikes from Iraq and elsewhere.
This is I believe the official position of the Iranian government at the moment.
The strikes in Iran currently appear to be surface fired ATGMs and drones from with Iran itself. There is a video of a Iranian motorcycle cop in a high speed chase with a van. Presumably it is driven by Israeli operatives. The cop is shooting at the van like a scene out of GTA. Another of Iranian cops shooting down a Israeli drone with small arms fire.
There are also videos of trucks being used to smuggle in explosive devices and drone parts and another where Iranian intelligence is documenting a drone manufacturing warehouse they discovered within Iran.
Also at least two videos circulating where you can clearly see a missile launched from the ground at a nearby target. The Israelis have got some serious ground operations happening there and the Iranians are running around trying to catch them. Official statement from an Iranian government source as well warning all Iranian citizens to report any home rentals to foreign nationals in the last few months.
I saw a post recently where apparently Iran revealed they'd been using decoys to lure attacks to worthless targets (people even point out about the videos of those attacks that you don't see secondary explosions because Iran wasn't keeping their missiles there); they had radars (or something) giving off pulses to draw Israel to targets of Iran's choosing