this post was submitted on 13 Jun 2025
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Showerthoughts
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A "Showerthought" is a simple term used to describe the thoughts that pop into your head while you're doing everyday things like taking a shower, driving, or just daydreaming. The most popular seem to be lighthearted clever little truths, hidden in daily life.
Here are some examples to inspire your own showerthoughts:
- Both “200” and “160” are 2 minutes in microwave math
- When you’re a kid, you don’t realize you’re also watching your mom and dad grow up.
- More dreams have been destroyed by alarm clocks than anything else
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We are still a long ways away from AI being able to replace programmers. The amount of sheer bullshit code and wrong stuff it writes currently will cripple any information system currently keeping economies up and running.
That won't stop large corporations from dramatically reducing programming jobs my friend.
Until they notice that cleaning up after failed AI-written code is more expensive than writing working code from the start. Which is already happening for some companies.
Yes. We're just getting there. Three years ago, there wasn't much hiring of junior developers, and it takes about three years for a junior to grow into a senior.
It also takes 3-5 years for stupid code choices to hurt in ways that affect a businesses bottom line.
These two factors should boil over each-other nicely in the near future.
We might have vastly different definitions what is a senior then, or you're peaking at the Donner-Kebab curve.
I'm referring to the usual definition for the job title, "Senior Developer". It's also a pretty good bare minimum skill definition needed to not constantly make costly mistakes.
I didn't set the industry wide definition, I am using it.
If you're angry with the lack of titles that reflect real seniority, join a union, or start one!
Why are you pushing emotions at me? Don't do it.
Even google's Ai summary slop says that industry standard is 5-10 years, not 3.
I watched in real time tech bros defending AI about stealing everyone's art to them realizing that they're creating something that will replace them. It was sad funny.
They will be forced to replace the laid off workers when they see that AI doesn’t replace them. Having a skill will still be valuable. Search “Klarna AI rehire”. That’s just support agents. Coders will be fine.
Sounds like a lot of opportunities opening up for smaller independent companies.
I think a lot of the crunch in the labor market for programmers is "monkey see monkey do" thinking at the big tech companies. It might even be somewhat calculated, though I hesitate to call something a conspiracy when it could simply be due to stupidity on the part of senior management.
Large tech companies tend to have a lot of flexibility and their total headcount because they have a wide variety of departments and tasks that they can set aside for an extended period before it causes any problems. Those problems will eventually catch up with them, though, as will a code base written by somebody who doesn't understand what they're trying to accomplish.
So I think the pendulum is going to swing back to a labor crunch at some point. My guess is at least another 6 months before we see any hint of that, though. I don't think it will be as bad as it was before the advent of LLMs, though. They really are a productivity enhancing tool, particularly for software developers who know what they're doing.
The only field I see LLMs enhancing productivity of competent developers is front end stuff where you really have to write a lot of bloat.
In every other scenario software developers who know what they're doing the simple or repetitive things are mostly solved by writing a fucking function, class or library. In today's world developers are mostly busy designing and implementing rather complex systems or managing legacy code, where LLMs are completely useless.
We're developing measurement systems and data analysis tools for the automotive industry and we tried several LLMs extensively in our daily business. Not a single developer was happy with the results.
Well yeah but I believe the idea is in short the uncertainty, why it's saying "in 10 years". Think of it now as you have a kid graduating high school this year, and asks you what to major in in college that's likely to make enough to pay off those killer loans it's going to take.
Well, Wordpress was meant to replace all professional web builders. Visual programming was meant to obsolete all programmers because everyone will be able to write software. Every decade there's a new thing that will replace programmers. Nothing did so far.
You have to admit, Visual Basic 3.0 was some cool shit, though, right?
I'll admit it didn't replace us, and it's gone now. But that shit was still cool.