this post was submitted on 20 Feb 2025
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NASA increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, on Tuesday, but they're now back down to 1 in 67, or 1.5%.

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[โ€“] artificialfish@programming.dev 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Thanks. Oh is this not โ€œbigโ€? Do we at least have the dinosaur killers mapped out ๐Ÿคž

[โ€“] threelonmusketeers@sh.itjust.works 1 points 15 hours ago* (last edited 15 hours ago)

Oh is this not โ€œbigโ€?

Not compared to the dinosaur killer. Chicxulub was around 10 kilometers wide, while 2024 YR4 is estimated to be ~100 meters wide. A hundred-fold increase in linear size roughly corresponds to million-fold increases in volume, mass, and energy. 2024 YR4 could wipe out a city, but nothing close to the effects of Chicxulub.

Do we at least have the dinosaur killers mapped out ๐Ÿคž

Yeah, I think we've catalogued those pretty extensively, and pinned down their orbits well enough to conclude that none of them pose a significant threat in the next century or so.