this post was submitted on 24 Jan 2025
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world. About 1C of total warming. Second chart: about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability. Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases. About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

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Trump’s Inflation Fix Centers on Energy Emergency That Doesn’t Exist | Economists and analysts aren’t convinced that an expansion of oil and gas production will lower consumer prices. (www.nytimes.com)
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[–] humanspiral@lemmy.ca 3 points 1 week ago* (last edited 1 week ago)

This is a false premise. Actual expansion of oil and gas production does lower those commodity prices, but policies/events so far raise them.

  • Maximizing strategic oil reserve holdings
  • LNG export infrastructure, especially if he can extort international customers to buy/divert from US consumption.
  • KSA vowing to invest $600B in US is a bribe to keep oil prices high. That enables funding their investment. KSA investments in past have been in non-oil industries.
  • Banning wind and EV adoption means more FF use/demand.
  • AI datacenters in US only, or massive funding for US ones, is more FF use.
  • unlikely but forced extra sanctions on Russian energy
  • possible regulation removal on capturing or even flaring NG from oil deposits would be aweful.

The false premise is that letting O&G pollute everything, doesn't make it "smart" for them to overproduce, and if they do drill more, than KSA/opec can ramp up production to take more share before they come online. Producing just enough extra to keep up with demand and $70+/barrel pricing is likely.

EVs globally are eating into oil demand. China has also converted many trucks/heavy vehicles to LNG. NG and coal demand in Europe down over 10% in 2024. Peace in Ukraine would be the most significant drop in oil/diesel use foreseeable.