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That's not the only way for them to win. They can also just take over a territory and perform gorilla warfare that costs China so much that they have to just give up. Is that likely to succeed? Probably not. It's a lot more likely than trying to overthrow the entire Chinese government though.
I heard Ukraine has some new ways to fight wars. What was it? Stapping a bomb to a drone then colliding with stuff. Sure DJI can spare a few for the Chinese military.
Why even send soldiers when they'll just do drone bombings everyday till the rebels give up. Its not like China have to invade like russia had to, they already control the area, they only need to hold it, defence is much easier to do. Unlike Syria, China has much more resources, its one of the world largest economy. I think they have a way of crushing dissent. The only way the rebels can have a chance of winnning is if the US is willing to intervene. So that's the question, does the US have the will to go up against China? Think about all the stuff that the US still manufacture in China. All the electronics, etc... I don't think the US will go that far, not yet.
That's not really how a gorilla war is won. You don't just have targets sitting around to strike. You hit their supply lines and just cause mayham, and get the fuck out before they can hit back. You hide within civilians so your troops can't be found. You force the enemy in over-retaliation, which causes them to create more enemies and commit more resources to strike.
CCP literally just racial profiled them and put them in camps for "re-education". Many of those separatists, along with many innocents that aren't involved in the separatist movement, are already in those camps being "re-educated" (aka: brainwashed). According to some people that have been in the Xinjiang/Tibet regions, there are soldiers everywhere with checkpoints, and thee soldiers often go through the phones of anyone who pass the checkpoint. And cameras are everywhere. Not exactly easy for guerrilla warfare. A mere suspicion of being a separatist can have you end up in a camp.
The Syrian way of doing this was putting you into torture prison if they didnt like you at the checkpoint. The Israeli way of having a dozen checkpoints a mile and total surveillance still fails to prevent people from resisting the occupation in the Westbank
For sure it will be difficult with such an authoritarian state. I'm not arguing that. I'm just saying it wouldn't be the same type of war as Ukraine.