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Russia ‘fires intercontinental ballistic missile’ at Ukraine for first time
(www.telegraph.co.uk)
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I’m curious how the allies know an ICBM isn’t a nuke
Until it explodes, you don't.
You don't, which why (aside from cost) nations don't use them as toys.
Yeah. If you want to demonstrate ICBM capability you launch a satellite, especially a lunar satellite. Everyone plays nice and celebrates the science while understanding that your rocketry can get a payload into orbit with enough fuel and accuracy to accelerate and maneuver to exactly where you want to go.
If an ICBM comes at a MAD nation standing orders for nuclear strikes go into effect. Using it with conventional munitions on a MAD nation is a fast way to get your entire population killed without returning the favor.
You wait till it explodes and check the NDDS.