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Ukraine's Zelenskyy says he wants to end war with Russia through diplomacy next year
(www.cbsnews.com)
this post was submitted on 16 Nov 2024
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What he likely means "ending the war by diplomatic means" is not talking or negotiating with Russia. No, that would be worst heresy imaginable. When he has previously talked about the use of diplomacy to find peace, what he really means is for Ukraine redouble it's efforts to beg for more money and weapons, but also get US and Europe to put more pressure on countries like China and India to ditch Putin and support Ukraine instead. Zelensky has talked along these lines before. Make his position seem reasonable to those who who want Ukraine to seek settlement, when it really isn't any different from "Zelensky's peace plan" that can be summed up in demand Russia's unconditional surrender as a precondition to any kind of dialogue.
I fear it's this kinda crazy talk that we are looking at. Zelensky or his inner circle just bring themselves to talk to the Russians, nor can they talk about things like giving up even places like Crimea. They just can't give an inch and we all know what happens to the reeds that don't bend with wind.
Zelenskyy literally cannot advocate for negotiated peace. The Right wing nationalist elements of Ukraine's coalition will effectively murder him if that becomes his position. It remains to be seen what will happen to him when he's forced into it by the reality of the war and the waning of international support by his patron states.
He's likely just going to flee to US or UK in the end.
He has a mega mansion in Egypt in his mom's name thanks to this war.
Juan Guaido excited to get a roomie in Florida
He could've fled long ago if he wanted instead of facing the risk and staying. I respect him for that.
You are saying this as if he is Yahya Sinwar fighting on the front line and dying a warrior's death.
He has to stay till the last moment if he wants to keep political power. He's not in any personal danger.
Ukraine suspended all national/local elections, because he can't possibly win anything again. Fleeing while claiming to be a hero is certain.
He doesn't care about what anybody in Ukraine things, the key part is to make sure he can be the next Guaido for the US. If he flees too soon then there's going to be a new government formed without him and he becomes irrelevant. So, he's going to wait till there's a full on collapse to flee and claim to be government in exile.
The Guaido option will be pursued if there is not an anti-Russia government in Kyev, but it would fail as did the Guaido maneuver. Zelensky's global real estate holding alone, as a result of this war are disqualifying as a legitimate Ukrainian leader in exile. His $20m Miami mansion would look especially bad to make press conferences from. It is more likely that the CIA-NGO long game restarts after a Russia friendly government. A provision in the peace deal that was agreed to a month after the war start was that regions would be allowed after X years to hold referendums in order to join a side. This is key to not making Ukraine a nazi state determined to extract western weapons funding for its naziism, because no one votes for that shit.
Oh yeah very much agree there.
Is this Democracy?
Democracy in Ukraine ended at the apartheid ethnostate rules against Russian speakers. After the war, all pro-peace reasonable parties were banned, for being pro Russian. All local and federal elections were suspended after Zelensky's term was legally over. Free elections have occurred in Russian liberated regions of Ukraine.
As in Israel, it is inapropriate to categorize apartheid ethnostates as democracies.
They absolutely can. Easily. They made a peace deal shortly after war started, but Zelensky accepted weapons bribe promises to keep going instead. As they are nearing the last Ukrainian, and the bribes will dry up, something close to original deal will happen instead. Zelensky is dead either way, but peace lets him flee somewhere, and claim to have done the right thing.
Zelensky's dilemma is that his real powerbase are the militant ultranationalists who surround him, who make up a double edged sword for him. Even if the Ukrainian people would have wanted peace yesterday they are not armed or organized. Zelensky still needs the nationalists around him to stand between him and possible popular uprising and the more moderate wing of the army doing a coup. If Zelensky goes for peace he fears that the nationalists around him will see that as an betrayal of Ukraine, them and those who have sacrificed their lives for their project and will turn on him and arrange an "Russian missile strike" in his office that will kill him and end any negotiations. You must understand that despite being called nationalists, the banderites love their imaginary version of Ukraine more than the actual nation. Ukraine bending the knee to Russia would save the real Ukraine, but it would destroy their ideal version of it and doom and taint their idea of Ukrainian nationalism forever.
You are correct in assessment of Ukraine power dynamics. But there may be a realism hit taking place if US won't fund the war. The banderites/Zelensky may wish to become South Korea. The "Musk ceasefire with EU peacekeepers" is South Korea with continued skirmishes, and not something Russia will fall for. "Listening to Russia's concerns" is a peace plan. Given Ukraine's path, mentioning peace may be Zelensky's way to threaten a better offer from West.