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UN secretary general visits Russia for BRICS summit despite Kyiv's criticism
(kyivindependent.com)
this post was submitted on 23 Oct 2024
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How are the hard numbers devastating to our case?
Well, let's see. 80% of commercial or public buildings in Gaza, and 60% of homes are rubble, and there's ~50,000 dead Palestinians and twice that number injured. Meanwhile, Isreali deaths amount to ~2,000 (let's say 4000 adjusting for the extra cruelty) and I can't even find data on infrastructure damage because it probably amounts to a few buildings. In addition, something like three-quarters of the Gazan population have caught a contagious disease, such as cholera, do to the destroyed sanitation system, and >90% have had food insecurity, while Israel is unaffected by both.
That doesn't really sound proportional, just or humane to me.
I checked the numbers with Al Jazeera for convenience, but everyone else watching gives similar values, including the UN, so it's not just a Qatari opinion. War is starting up In Lebanon now, as well, and the West Bank is getting more and more lawless as a blind eye is turned to violence from settler groups. Gaza continues to be economically isolated and suffers all the various social ills caused by the resulting poverty, on top of the direct war damage.
That's not what the principle of proportionality means. It has nothing to do with the death toll on each side. It's a principle that's applied to each individual strike and requires armed forces to ensure that any civilian deaths are proportional to the military objectives of the strike. Hamas and Hebollah are terrorist organizations that don't respect the laws of war, so that's a pretty big point in favor of Israel.
Second, many military experts have agreed that, given the conditions in which Israel is fighting this war, the civilian-to-combatant ratio in Gaza is among the lowest in the history of urban warfare. You've seen what Israel is capable of over the past year - it's patently obvious that the death toll could have been much, much higher.
Third, the moral judgment of rightness or wrongness in a conflict isn't determined by the death toll on each side. The winners of a war will typically suffer fewer casualties than the losers because that's a big part of how winners in war are determined. The fact that very few US civilians died in WWII compared to German civilians doesn't make the US the bad guys in that war.
There is one side in this conflict that is openly genocidal: the Iranian regime. They have literally admitted their goal is to destroy Israel. They have a doomsday clock in Tehran counting down to the death of Israel in the year 2040. And they are willing to sacrifice every single Palestinian life to make that happen.
Says who? The entire philosophy of a just war is about trolley problems - kill someone now, to protect someone later. Killing for anything else is just murder. Certainly, the UN doesn't say what you're suggesting, and Israel's arguments under international law have focused more on all of Gaza being a military target somehow, as opposed to it being okay simply because of their goals, or because proportionality doesn't apply outside of some very narrow situation.
Nothing is above human rights, and definitely not Bibi's career, which is really what's driving things here. Israelis themselves would rather make a deal. Everyone on the other side and Israel's allies would definitely rather make a deal.
Says international law. https://casebook.icrc.org/a_to_z/glossary/proportionality#:~:text=The%20principle%20of%20proportionality%20prohibits,and%20direct%20military%20advantage%20anticipated%E2%80%9D.
Hamas wants to make a deal if they can get what they want out of it. That's the whole reason they took hostages. Terrorists who take hostages shouldn't get what they want.
Yeah, I can read the definition as well as you can. What you're proposing is an interpretation of "military advantage" - one which would let any number of bad guys from history off the hook. Oh, and also Hamas - Oct 7 advanced their goals quite well, as you've pointed out with the hostages.
That's because we're discussing the definition of proportionality outside the broader context of the laws of warfare. It is a principle applied to specific strikes within the context of military action that is justified under international law. So no, it doesn't just license a group like Hamas to do what they did on the grounds that it helped them achieve their goals.
Okay, who says that. That's an incredibly narrow context, I'm not even sure what "strikes" would mean here - since it's usually applied to a tactical context that's way below the granularity of any military treaty I've ever seen.
Oh come on, there are well-established doctrines of internal law related to war - you know, the same "international law" that anti-Zionists love to accuse Israel of violating all the time.
'Strike' is the word I chose and may not be the word that actually appears in the documents that outline international law on the matter, but you get the point. This is a silly discussion.
I assure you, I don't know what exact rules you mean, and suspect they don't exist. (No shade on you, though)
As far as I know, proportionality is vague, but applies on every scale, in every situation. The actual lawyers for Israel have argued that their overall response has been proportional. (Because Hamas is hiding in the Gaza strip, and so it's all a legitimate target to vapourise. By that standard, they're right, and they've actually been generous, but it's a dumb standard)
Have you heard of the Geneva Conventions? How can you accuse Israel of waging war that is disproportionate and then turn around and say it's a vague term and international laws of war don't exist?
Vague insofar as it's totally left to courts and individuals to interpret what the exact threshold of disproportional is. That's why there's a cottage industry in dissecting the ethics of every individual thing the US did in it's recent wars. Damage and casualties are extremely lopsided here, though, even if you argue the lopsidedness is justified somehow.
I was trying to include the nuances to be fair to you, but apparently that was just confusing.
The main mention is Article 57, called Precautions in Attack, and it has this nice little section:
From a Westpoint academy article I just stumbled on, on proportionality:
The military objective here being a few Hamas fighters sprinkled around, and civilians and civilian objects being all of Gaza. I'm now pretty certain there isn't a loophole based on what you're doing or thinking at the time, like you seem to be suggesting.
You can't cherry-pick one statement out of Article 57 and ignore everything else. Read the entire section. The whole point is to prohibit intentional attacks on civilians but to provide justification for attacks that harm civilians. Even attacks directly on civilians are justified under international law if those civilians are directly involved in hostilities. Here's a brief article that summarizes these concepts: https://hhi.harvard.edu/files/humanitarianinitiative/files/conduct_of_military_operations_in_urban_areas.pdf?m=1615497739
I did read the entire thing - it's not long. Yes, you can unintentionally harm civilians, proportionately.
It's not intrinsic to urban warfare to do it this way, either. Compare any of the American operations of this millennium.
US operations have killed a lot of civilians. But there is no theater of war quite like Gaza, which is what makes the numbers that much more impressive.
Gaza is denser than a typical Arab area (gee, I wonder why) but the construction and customs are pretty much the same. Nothing about it morally, legally or tactically justifies flattening it any more than Fallujah or Kandahar.
The entire area is a giant terrorist base. There are 500km of tunnels underneath Gaza used to transport weapons and conduct terror attacks. Hamas was integrated into the civilian infrastructure.
The impact on civilians is devastating but this is the only way to end the cycle of violence. Groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda still exist but they have no power because they have no territory. Israel has now done the same to Hamas.
They're less of a threat, that's true, but they're far from gone.
Okay, so you're done then? We can have a two-state solution with the PLO in charge in Palestine, and they can rebuild and control their own non-Israeli borders? That's what I think should happen next, as does the broader international community.
Israel isn't done yet. Hezbollah is almost done, but there is still the head of the octopus: the Iranian regime. As long as they are in power and are working towards nukes, Israel will not be able to live in peace.
A two state solution is a long term goal. Israel's withdrawal from Gaza in 2005 was the first test of a 2SS and look how that turned out. The Palestinian people have a role to play in this too, by making a commitment to pursue peaceful coexistence. Otherwise we will go through all this again in another 15 years.
So, that's a no.
As long as there's an Arab or Persian population around and angry, there's no 100% safety. I'm sure you know that. If anything that stands in the way of Israel's safety is a legitimate target, which is what you're saying at this point, you're talking about genocide.
This is the part where I mention I myself am Jewish, if never practicing, and that kind of thing is painfully ironic.
Where did I say that Israel needs to wipe out any particular population? I said they need to deal with Hezbollah, which is a genocidal terror army, and then deal with the Iranian regime, which is a genocidal Islamist government regime. Putting off a two state solution until the Palestinians can agree to stop trying to murder Jews isn't advocating for genocide. That's a ridiculous statement you made.
Glad to hear that's not what you're saying - it really feels like that's where the region is headed.
What's the alternative to a two-state solution? One state is a pipe dream right now, and the status quo leaves Israel unsafe. Even if every single individual Hamas fighter was killed somehow, there's a lot of Palestinians who want revenge for the destruction of their whole world, and another organisation would start.