It's time to see if the polls are right.
Previously: the voting megathread
this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2024
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UK Politics
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Similarly to what happened with UKIP, the Tories will just take Reforms policies, bring in new further-right leadership and support will come back.
Especially after Labour (who just got elected on a fairly bland centrist manifesto) won't manage to magically fix things in 2-3 years. Conservative media will blame Labour for all the issues (even though most are the fault of the Tories) and Conservative voters will rally around the banner of "Labour out!".
Or Reform just eats the Tories, which seems a but less likely to me, but either way the split won't last.
I think that's right. Tories will move further to the right on immigration and force Labour to move with them. Populism isn't going anywhere.
But one of the main reasons that the conservatives are so unpopular is because they've been chasing the right and leaving the centralist politics basically defended, which is why Labour wandered over there, and they have clearly done well out of that.
while also dragging labour further right on immigration and culture wars.
Yes. Thinking that reform will always be there is extremely naive, reform can disappear just as quickly as UKIP did after Brexit.
UKIP disappeared because they were a single issue party.
I've personally not met anyone that voted Reform for who immigration wasn't their top priority.
I know they're not a single issue party unless you consider "the Tories aren't right wing enough" as a single issue.