this post was submitted on 06 Jun 2024
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So now we need to wait and see if it will slowly fall back or if we hit a runaway situation, basically?
Well, maybe not just wait ... Some factors will fall back - e.g. El Niño is a cycle, so are sunspots, ocean patches go round in (big-slow) loops, forests can run out of tinder (for a while). But to be sure to tip the balance of those climate-carbon feedbacks we need to get the temperature down - this could be done quicker by focusing especially on emissions of shorter-lived gases - mainly methane. Cutting out aviation-induced cirrus might also help to cancel some of the warming we got from cutting shipping sulphate - the opposite effect is because low clouds cause net cooling, high clouds cause net warming (depending on angle of sun etc. ...). The good news is that models already include most of these factors, the bad news is that models say we have to cut emissions much faster than we do.