this post was submitted on 26 Apr 2024
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These are great ideas and should be implemented, but at best the push the issue of population down the road. These are temporary band-aids to a worsening problem.
A species that grows beyond it's bounds and kills itself is not intelligent, it's merely a clever tool user. Let's prove our real intelligence by being the first species on our planet conscious of the physical bounds, with understanding we have the capacity to to go beyond them to our own demise, and wisdom to actively choose sustainability. Let's be smarter than bacteria on a Petri dish.
The goal of our species shouldn't be to fit as many humans as possible on the planet and make everyone sacrifice for it.
But I want to clarify, I'm not in favor of authoritarian limits on reproduction (I'm an anarchist). I suspect, looking at the timing of the human population explosion on the scale of thousands of years, that exploitative economic systems and the ability to cheat the natural energy balance by using prehistoric sunlight energy (fossil fuels) are the drivers of this explosion and if we can eliminate or control those things the population would naturally contract.
I think things are getting better, or at least the groundwork is getting better. Some indicators (numbers come from energy use by sector):
So just looking at that, we have 20-30% of our energy use that's in the process of being replaced or replaceable with renewables, and that's a conservative estimate of the low-hanging fruit. The numbers are better in more developed countries as well, so as these technologies get cheaper, we'll see more rapid rollout.
Yeah, I don't think that'll ever happen. We're generally pretty bad at planning ahead at scale, though we're pretty good at responding to stimuli.
Instead of trying to get everyone to be wiser, I think it's more productive and thus better to adjust the stimuli to get the responses we're looking for. If greenhouse gases are destroying the planet, tax them. If sprawl is killing ecosystems, make it more attractive to build high density housing. And so on.
I disagree. If that was true, wouldn't we see a lot more population growth in developed countries and less population growth in poorer countries? Those are the ones using the most energy per capita.
Population growth is greatest in poorer areas, probably because of a mix of poor education and reliance on kids for elder care.
If we improve access to technology and wealth in poorer areas, we'll likely see growth of energy use in the short term, followed by decreases per-capital as more efficient infrastructure rolls out, and then better access to education will lead to drops in population growth. We can hopefully short circuit the initial growth in energy use by developing cheap renewables so they won't need to go through the fossil fuel phase first.
In short, if we want to reach a population equilibrium, we should be focusing on technology to improve the lives of people in poorer areas, not pushing for reduced reproduction directly.