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Biden to announce US will build port on Gaza shore for large-scale aid delivery
(www.theguardian.com)
this post was submitted on 07 Mar 2024
184 points (98.4% liked)
politics
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I know /s, but what those uncritical white liberals don't recognize, is that Biden can't win without pivoting 180 on his prior position of Gaza.
Failing to be critical of the candidate and holding them accountable ensures their failure.
Pivoting on Gaza will be the start of Biden rebuilding his campaign, because right now, he's made all the wrong moves and has around a 1-10, 1-20 chance of actually winning. He needs to be beating Trump nationally by 5 points to have this thing locked up. He's trailing Trump nationally, outside of the margin of error. That's not just 'bad' that's DISASTROUS for a Democratic candidate once you account for redstate gerrymandering and the fact that Trump consistently outperforms polling.
Biden needs to cater to his actual base, not Republicans. He wont win if he doesn't.
Presidential elections are nearly all statewide and therefore nearly immune to gerrymandering.
And Trump is underperforming polling.
Polling on Trump consistently underestimates his real world performance.
Going into 2016 (our best corollary for this election. D in office, Trump from outside), Trump was losing within the margin of error and he massively over performed the polling.
He's currently leading in the polling, outside of the margin of error.
Biden needs to get to 55% in the polling nationally to be secure in a national election. He has to make up 12 points. That's basically never happened for an incumbent.
With Biden as the nominee, Democrats have lost this election.
Your own link points out that Trump underperforms his polls.
And how is Bidens polling doing in those same states?
Its the difference in polling that matters, and what matters, is that when there is an actual election, Trump outperforms the polls.
If Biden isn't at 55% going into the general, its Trumps V.
If the election were tomorrow, Trump would win every contested swing state.
Stop deluding yourself into thinking that Biden is going to win.
There were actual elections in several states this year, and Trump underperformed his polls.
Biden is getting 80-90% of the vote in his primaries (MN excepted) which is also what Obama got in 2012.
And I'm not deluding myself, the election could easily go either way.
But Biden does not need to poll 55% to win. He never polled that high in 2020, yet he won.
And what was Trump polling in 2020? He was a 34% approval rating. Not too far from where Biden is polling now. And yes, Biden was at 55% in November of 2020.
Trump was FLOUNDERING in the polls and any one with eyes saw Trump was going to lose that election. Running 'as the president' versus someone who gets to be critical and unaccountable is a very different position than being the incumbent. Probably any President in power would struggle the next election cycle after governing through a pandemic.
and 55% represents where Biden would need to be to be 'secure' in his victory (national polling).
50% is still a Biden victory, but he'll be fighting for some of the swing states, maybe wins, maybe loses.
45% and Biden is fighting for his life.
40%? Biden has lost.
Biden sub 40%. Its not even a question.
He has a 1-10 chance to win? You are out of your mind. He’s got problems but he is not that far off from winning, if at all. This change on Gaza is a great step forward but don’t act like he’s just terrible otherwise. He’s no where near ideal but don’t forsake mostly good to ok for bad.
People on here live in tiny bubbles thinking the better option is to primary Biden for some no-name person who has probably already conceded. As if the tiny American progressive vote can outnumber the incredible centrist bloc and mostly apathetic Americans who vote on surface-level politics and name recognition.
You are delusional if you think right now Biden has a better than 1:10 chance of winning. Its probably closer to 1:20 at this point.
This isn't hyperbole. Hes lost all support he had 1 year ago in the polling, which wasn't even that great. He's losing among Democrats. Trump is holding steady. Not gaining or losing. The fact that this "uncommitted" movement is even happening should be a break glass, hair on fire, "holy fuck" moment for Democrats. But they are too committed to the project of white liberalism to see the writing on the wall.
And rather than try to re-position and appeal to Democrats, he's re-positioning to appeal to Nikki Haley voters. Its beyond stupid. Bidens gone from bad to worse in terms of electoral strategy.
On his current course, we're looking towards a 1984 Reagan level victory for Trump.