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China is great at sweeping the trash under the rug so my guess the blow will be quite minimal. I do wonder how will this affect Chinese investment culture and real estate has been the investment strategy forever. Now people are slowly realizing that nobody wants to buy or rent their shitty investment and all of it is ghost money.
It's a two sided attack.
On one hand, their investment opportunities are limited. As a normal pleb the most they can do is buy an investment property. Stock market is pretty sketchy and limited to those with decent cash, so it leaves just real estate which is why so much gets pumped into it.
Then on the other side you have population decline. China is literally fucked from old age people and the preference to having a son. More women there also don't want to deal with the entitled little emperor, so they don't get married also. Population is on track to hit 500bill in 2100 (down from 1.4T at its peak). All those billions missing don't need apartments.
When it falls, it's going to be impressive.
Do you mean 500 million and 1.4 billion people?
Imagine trying to share this planet with 1.4 trillion other people 💀
I have a hard enough time seeing myself in the mirror
Hey guys, I found the vampire.
Will never fall too soon..
Sweeping trash under the rug doesn't make the trash disappear
Yeah but when you have a dictatorship you can make people who complain disappear.
So some poor dumdums will be left holding the bags, a few sent to organ harvesting prisons and then rince and repeat. As long as the peasants feel a bit richer every year and the local infra is getting built nobody dares to complain.
I bet the CCP is going to make the homeowners whole at a minimum to avoid the risk of social instability.