sp3ctr4l

Yep, you've got it.

This could get really ugly, really fast.

I cannot believe I am saying this, but uh... yeah, with this level of general government idiocy and chaos, hyperinflation may actually be a probable outcome.

The USD is tanking internationally, and ... welp, gotta keep making these international debt payments somehow, and the oldest trick in the book for that is just hyperinflation.

... And Trump keeps saying he can or will fire Jerome Powell ... and then the Federal Reserve is no longer independent, and basically all the economists just shrug and give up.

Whoo boy this is gonna suck.

Hopefully he doesn't drive up inflation so much that it cancels out the 15-40% drops we'll see in home prices.

Well uh... unfortunately:

So thats about an 11% devaluation of the dollar since start of the year, where the dxy is an index based on the volume of currencies exhanged for the USD.

And uh... yeah, we ... actually still need to import a lot of shit... so... uh...that line looks pretty steep down, not done sinking yet...

Fucking, who knows?

Oops, God Emperor Trump turned out to be a false Messiah, and is actually somehow a thrall of all the Chaos Gods simultaneously.

He probably meant that it almost never goes down in nominal, ie, non inflation adjusted terms, yoy.

What you have posted is:

1. Not actual nominal prices, it is the case-schiller index, which is calculated with different weighting and methods than Zillow is using.

2. This is inflation adjusted, real values, again, not nominal prices.

3. Looks like this is a data point at each month, when we are talking about blocking out and aggregating entire years and representing them as one data point.

When looking at more granular data, you're more likely to see more movement. When you're looking at less granular data... a projected yoy decline is a much bigger deal.

Thats a lot of words to say: You are not doing an apples to apples comparison.

That would look like this:

Apologies for whipping up this shit tier graph from FRED, im on a shitty phone.

Orange or Rust is actual nominal prices, blocked out year by year.

Blue is the nominal change in yearly prices, I would have liked to made it a centered % change graph in the middle, but FRED doesnt do that in its web renderer.

But you can still see any time the blue is... below zero.

And that is, historically, pretty rare, only happening in 7 (or 8?) years of nearly a century of data.

Except it is unexpected, if you ask basically 90% of realtors, and the vast majority of analysts following the housing market, untill... well basically right now.

The whole schtick is that houses prices always go up, never down, that price growth may slow but never actually go negative.

I pointed this out to my other reply to you, but uh yeah, the fundamentals have been blaring more and more warning signs for years, but perception is key, so the vast majority of people who report market projections are incentivized to paint a far too rosy picture...

... And then reality becomes too difficult to ignore, and perceptions shift rapidly.

Zillow, a month ago, was projecting a modest, nationwide growth of 0.8%.

Now, a month later, Trump actually does the stuff he repeatedly said he was going to do, but the market just assumed he was either bullshitting or had a more robust and thought out plan...

And suddenly the delusions are eviscerated, and a month later, 0.8% gets moved downward -2.5% to a -1.7% projection.

These people did not see this coming until it smacked them in the face.

Almost no one was projecting an actual decline, publically, untill very recently, and if you were projecting a decline 6 months ago, you would have either been dismissed or laughed at by the experts.

If your parents are anything like mine, they will gleefully ignore all sound advice designed to protect them financially or just improve their lives generally, even if they agree with the logic.

Because acknowledging that their child could possibly know more about anything than them on any subject would conflict with their ... well, quite literally apocalyptic levels of paternalistic boomer narcissism.

But more seriously: check your local market conditions and projections, certain areas are still actually appreciating or mostly stable, but many areas are set for a significant decline.

... Its mostly, but not entirely, places that are going to be turbofucked by climate change intensified disasters in the next ten years.

Many larger corporate landlords yes, will renegotiate, and yes, a whole lot of just normal homeowners will be fucked.

But also, a whole lot of smaller scale corpo landlords, and ... basically private individuals who do house flipping or rent out their extra bedrooms or second or third houses for AirBnB... a lot of them are also fucked.

But, on the whole... there aren't anywhere near as many 'normal' homeowners, who just own one home and live in it and are not also landlords of some kind, not after a decade + of this insane price bubble.

A whole lot of people who've been renting, been priced out?

This is good news for them.

Yes.

The bubble pops when the price growth stops, and goes negative.

'The bubble' is basically the idea that prices just keep going up forever.

Based on that idea, financing, loans, leverage happens.

When the fundamentals no longer represent the bubble mindset, everyone whose personal budgets or business relies on prices just going upward, forever, are now margin squeezed, and potentially margin called depending on how overleveraged they are.... because you based your ability to pay the debt on your loans you used to purchase the property... on the idea that your property and thus rent prices would just keep going up.

Now, your property is actually worth less, and thus so is the amount of rent you can charge... but your debt payments are still the same.

You hold out as long as you can, but all around you other property owners are cutting their losses and selling at lower property values, which further reinforces the idea that your own property isn't worth the rent you are charging for it.

EDIT:

There are a lot of underlying fundamentals that drove Zillow's projection, which are broadly addressed in the article.

But it is also worth mentioning that a single month ago, Zillow was projecting a modest 0.8% growth for the year forward.

Then Trump decided to greatly aggrevate the economic situation, and things downturned so fast that 0.8% growth turned into -1.7%.

The fundamentals have been building up to a breaking point for a while now, huge inventory numbers, much more time on market till a sale, sellers offering many kinds of concessions, significant lossess in the stock prices of major homebuildets...

But then Trump did the Tariff nonsense, and also decided to deport all the brown people to a gulag, cause an overt constitutional crisis, and destroy the USD as the de facto world currency... and in doing all thjs, he essentially popped the bubble himself.

Trumps actions in one month shifted the growth projections for a whole year by -2.5%.

What do you mean 1/3 of the country won't be able to get home insurance within ten years?

Climate change?

That's stupid.

You have to have home insurance to be able to pay a mortgage?

WTF that's even more stupid!

A nearly 50% drop in booked global TEUs?

TEU means Twenty Foot Equivalent Units, your basic standard shipping container.

Yes, yes, this is astoundingly, apocalyptically bad.

America will be more fucked than others, but this is Great Depression 2.0.

If this persists, and you end up with a the rest of the year of roughly half the TEU... well you'd go from about 900m TEU to about 550m TEU.

The last time global sea trade clocked in at about 550m TEU was 2010.

https://transportgeography.org/contents/chapter5/intermodal-transportation-containerization/world-container-throughput/

So... yeah, just wipe out the last 15 years worth of volume of world trade, and economic activity/growth enabled by that, and oh also you have about 1 billion more mouths to feed than in 2010.

Or... if you look at it in terms of % change.... its hard to find detailed, historical, week by week figures without paying for the data, but the entirety of the GFC hitting the global economy in 2009 resulted in an 8.5% decrease in global TEU from 2008.

So... it remains to be seen how long and strong the current downturn in TEU will persist...

But, if you say 2025 TEU drops by 30% in aggregate for the rest of this year... that is a 2025 that has a -22.5% 'growth' in total world trade volume, almost 3x as bad as the 07 08 09 GFC, the impact of which was seen in the -8.5% of 2009.

These are spitball guess numbers, I can't predict the future... but I do have a degree in Econ and I used to work as an executive level data analyst for a large mulinational, US based import export firm... so its moderately informed spitball guess.

This is Great Depression 2.0, this will make the GFC look like childs play. This is tens or hundreds of millions of people (globally) going broke, becoming homeless, starving to death levels of bad.

The only way to prevent that at this point is ... well basically step one is America needs to impeach and imprison every Trump administration member... but that is uh... not guaranteed, to say the least.

For me, the image of this post... is like... a crying, clipart style cartoon soccer ball, that is animated in a few frames of a radial series of dots filling up around the soccer ball, and then when the dots circle the entire soccer ball, it like... jumps, and makes a more pained, cartoon expression.

Maybe this is some very weird glitch or quirk on my end, or results from the particular lemmy browser app I am using? (Thunder)

It has stayed this way for almost 2 days now, I am not hallucinating lol, but apparently no one else is seeing this?

I... would also have thought this as well.

Just have a player host their own instance, everyone connects to them, and have some kind of fallback system in place in case the host disconnects.

Then, next step, make it so that once that basic framework is setup, maybe also have a basic host migration thing within an established group of players, basically ping everyone to everyone and pick the person who has the lowest average ping to everyone else as the host.

I do not undertand at all why this game ... needs a central server at all.

It is described as an 'online only' game.

I have not played it, but it seems like the levels are small, the default player count is 6, but a lot of the game is based on physics interactions...

Closest comparison I can think of is fucking about on GMod with 6 people, which you could probably pull off with your own self hosted instance, but a higher player count (which is apparently the main thrust of these mods that they say are anihilating their bandwidth) would need an actual dedicated server to avoid desync and lagging into oblivion.