booly

joined 1 year ago
[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 3 points 15 hours ago (1 children)

I agree with your general view that it's not actually time to relax.

But I will point out that you can't just assume the electoral college advantage stays the same from election to election.

Biden won with 4.5% more of the national vote. Harris currently is polling at about half that. In the EC, Biden won by only 78,000 votes despite his large +4.5% popular vote lead.

In 2020, Biden won by 4.5% in the popular vote, but he won the tipping point state of Wisconsin by 0.6%. In other words, the electoral college was worth roughly a R+3.8% advantage in 2020 (yes, 4.5% minus 0.6% is 3.9% but when you use unrounded numbers it's closer to 3.8%).

Is 2024 going to be the same? Probably not. The New York Times ran an article about this last month, and the tipping point state in the polling was Wisconsin, where Harris was polling at +1.8%, only 0.7% lower than the national average at the time of 2.6%. The article noted that national polling has Trump shrinking Harris's lead in non-competitive blue states like California and New York, or expanding his lead in places like the deep south, while not gaining in actual swing states compared to 2020.

Note, however, that as of today, Harris's lead in Wisconsin has shrunk to just under 1%, so we are seeing a shift towards Trump in the actual electoral college.

Right now, Harris is showing a lead in the national polling averages, by aggregator:

  • 538: Harris up by 2.4%
  • NYT: Harris up by 3%
  • 270towin: Harris up 2.5%
  • Nate Silver: Harris up 2.9%

It's a close race, according to the polls. But whether the polls are actually accurate remains a huge unknown. So everyone should vote, and those with the means should volunteer.

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 10 points 16 hours ago

The Navy gives its pilots call signs, essentially chosen by that pilot's peers in flight school.

Having already been a SEAL and a doctor, and only being sent to Navy flight school as part of his astronaut training, his peers gave him the call sign "Sidequest."

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 2 points 16 hours ago

I know you're making a joke, but it's not funny specifically because of what a piece of shit his dad actually was.

In Jonny Kim's senior year in high school, his dad died in a shootout with the police after the pistol whipping his mom and repeatedly threatening to kill her (in front of their high school age son). This dude joined the Navy a few months later, in large part to get away from an traumatic home life.

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 1 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Teeth can need work from physical trauma, too. Getting hit in the head while hunting or fighting or just hiking might cause a cracked tooth, which can be deadly in the absence of dental care. Or just while eating, sometimes a stray rock or bone fragment or shell might cause an issue.

Lots of other species can regrow teeth in adulthood, even a handful of other mammals. All sorts of animals can have tooth problems in the wild, so I wouldn't assume that prehistoric humans were exempt from that general danger.

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 4 points 5 days ago

What, a ghost choked you in Switzerland?

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 9 points 6 days ago

The premise is that all energy use increases entropy over time, and eventually a planetary civilization will use so much energy that the planet itself will get cooked. As a thermodynamic inevitability.

But if it's a super advanced civilization with advanced technology, Why can't the civilization cool the planet by dumping waste heat into stuff that they then launch into space?

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 6 points 6 days ago

And always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom.

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 8 points 6 days ago

They've got a good, but not perfect, track record of actually uncovering illegal conduct by their targets.

  • They exposed Nikola's fraud (including exposing the video they published pretending that their prototype rolling downhill was moving under its own electric power) and their findings led to the Nikola founder's indictment about a year later.
  • They alleged fraudulent disclosures and financial statements by Nigerian conglomerate Tingo Group, and the government ended up indicting the founder for securities fraud.
  • They showed that Lordstown Motors was drumming up fake demand by literally paying potential customers to sign letters of intent to join the waitlist for their not-yet-created electric truck. The SEC ended up charging them with misleading investors, and brought action against their auditor who had conflicts of interest.
  • They exposed the obvious fraud of EbixCash, a gift card network, and tanked its IPO, by showing that they were lying to investors about the existence of their partners (using photoshopped buildings and fake addresses and phone numbers), lying about app downloads, and almost all of the revenue was from their own sister companies. This exposure brought down its parent company, which ended up in Chapter 11.

They've had less success accusing two huge well-connected investors of fraud:

  • They published a report that billionaire Carl Icahn was manipulating the share prices of his fund by using a sophisticated ponzi scheme structure that paid old investors using new investors' cash. The SEC ended up investigating and settling for a disclosure violation about failing to disclose their pledge of more than half the stock as collateral, but didn't actually find facts confirming the meat of the Hindenburg accusation.
  • They've gone after India's Adani Group for accounting fraud and stock manipulation, but that hasn't led to anything actually uncovered. India's security regulator has concluded their investigation without findings of wrongdoing, but Hindenburg has doubled down and says the regulator is compromised by corruption. Adani's founder is close to India's Prime Minister.
  • They alleged that Block/Square was aware of, but doing nothing to stop, widespread fraud in its Cash App and debit card transactions. That wasn't enough to actually move the stock price, because it was kinda a weak accusation, they didn't really show that Cash App was any different from any other similar fintech product, and Block is a much bigger company that has lots of other business units.

The problem is that most of us on the outside looking in just see accusations, some of which are proven years later, and some of which never get proven, so we don't have a good sense of which ones are real or not, whether anything is overstated, or whether it actually makes a difference to the underlying company.

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 10 points 1 week ago (2 children)

Enshittification isn't always driven by a conscious person or organization with an agenda, much less one with an agenda of short term financial gain. Sometimes the aggregation of a bunch of individual decisions causes something to get shittier. Or better. Or just different. 4chan is not at all like it was 20 years ago, but it wasn't because of corporate influence. The culture just changes.

So if the question is whether the fediverse might someday suck, I think the answer is probably yes. It remains to be seen how it will suck, who will have caused it to be that way, and whether there will be other nice things about it.

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 1 points 1 week ago

At this price point, he can hit.

[–] booly@sh.itjust.works 3 points 1 week ago (1 children)

one that eats sulfur and excretes iron, and one that eats iron and excretes sulfur

Thermodynamically, how could these two cycles sustain metabolism? Were there other processes/species in the mix to introduce chemical compounds that had more energy contained within?

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