Anyone

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/38752499

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A recent global survey by UNEP FI and Global Credit Data found that only 18 per cent of banks integrate climate risk into their internal ratings-based models [IRBs], which drive regulatory capital requirements. The study cites data gaps and methodological hurdles but does not explain the deeper problem: credit risk and climate risk models are built on fundamentally different logics.

[...]

Unless supervisors adapt, the IRB models of today will remain blind to one of the most significant credit risk drivers of this century.

Credit risk models are precision tools honed on the past. Under the IRB approach, they calculate probabilities of default, losses given default, and exposure at default using deep pools of historical data.

Defaults, losses and macroeconomic patterns from years gone by are fed into these systems, with the underlying belief that yesterday’s relationships will largely hold tomorrow. This backward-looking design is reinforced by strict regulatory requirements: every risk driver must be de facto statistically significant, rigorously validated, and continuously monitored.

The result is a disciplined, data-heavy framework built to forecast the next 12 months of creditworthiness — and nothing beyond.

Climate risk models speak a different language. They are not grounded in borrower default histories but in climate science and policy pathways. Instead of asking “what happened last year, and will it repeat?”, they ask “what could happen in the decades ahead and how prepared are we if it does?” — on the premise that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

"“A factory in a flood zone may operate for years without incident, then suffer catastrophic losses from a single storm wiping it out overnight.”"

[...]

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/38626464

The annual assessment by the Net Zero Tracker (NZT)—which reviews both the quantity and quality of global climate commitments—finds that 77% of global GDP is still covered by national net zero commitments.

Net Zero Stocktake 2025 assesses progress in setting and strengthening whole-economy net zero targets, and evaluates more than 4,000 entities on integrity criteria — essentially, whether plans and strategies contain the key components for deep decarbonisation.

The fifth annual report also examines how companies are integrating nature into their climate commitments.

Download Net Zero Stocktake 2025 (pdf - 2.7 MB)

Key findings:

• Of the 198 countries, 712 regions, 1,186 cities, and 1,987 publicly listed companies tracked, at least 1,935 now have net zero targets:

• 137 countries (up from 124 in 2020)

• 216 states and regions (up from 73)

• 337 cities (up from 115)

• 1,245 companies (up from 417).

• More than 50 countries, most of them lower-income, still have not expressed a public intention to achieve net zero, alongside nearly half of the 3,885 subnational governments and companies

• Among companies, more than 400 of the world’s largest publicly listed companies remain without any mitigation targets — concentrated in the US (30%) and China (42%). More than half of the 100 private companies tracked by the initiative still do not have a net zero target.

• Globally, more than two thirds (860 out of 1,245) of Forbes Global 2000 companies with net zero targets back their commitments up with plans.

Integrity of targets remains low across all entities: Only 7% of companies, 6.5% of regions, and 4% of cities meet all minimum procedural and substantive integrity requirements (the 'starting line') — though company and city progress has climbed modestly in the past year.

Many companies are turning to nature-based solutions such as such as reforestation or peatland restoration, yet only 4% have set dedicated targets, raising concerns about over-reliance on land-based approach.

...

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/38623559

One of the cruellest and most devastating diseases – Huntington's – has been successfully treated for the first time, say doctors.

The disease runs through families, relentlessly kills brain cells and resembles a combination of dementia, Parkinson's and motor neurone disease.

An emotional research team became tearful as they described how data shows the disease was slowed by 75% in patients.

It means the decline you would normally expect in one year would take four years after treatment, giving patients decades of "good quality life", Prof Sarah Tabrizi told BBC News.

The new treatment is a type of gene therapy given during 12 to 18 hours of delicate brain surgery.

The first symptoms of Huntington's disease tend to appear in your 30s or 40s and is normally fatal within two decades – opening the possibility that earlier treatment could prevent symptoms from ever emerging.

Prof Tabrizi, director of the University College London Huntington's Disease Centre, described the results as "spectacular".

"We never in our wildest dreams would have expected a 75% slowing of clinical progression," she said.

None of the patients who have been treated are being identified, but one was medically retired and has returned to work. Others in the trial are still walking despite being expected to need a wheelchair.

Treatment is likely to be very expensive. However, this is a moment of real hope in a disease that hits people in their prime and devastates families.

...

One of the cruellest and most devastating diseases – Huntington's – has been successfully treated for the first time, say doctors.

The disease runs through families, relentlessly kills brain cells and resembles a combination of dementia, Parkinson's and motor neurone disease.

An emotional research team became tearful as they described how data shows the disease was slowed by 75% in patients.

It means the decline you would normally expect in one year would take four years after treatment, giving patients decades of "good quality life", Prof Sarah Tabrizi told BBC News.

The new treatment is a type of gene therapy given during 12 to 18 hours of delicate brain surgery.

The first symptoms of Huntington's disease tend to appear in your 30s or 40s and is normally fatal within two decades – opening the possibility that earlier treatment could prevent symptoms from ever emerging.

Prof Tabrizi, director of the University College London Huntington's Disease Centre, described the results as "spectacular".

"We never in our wildest dreams would have expected a 75% slowing of clinical progression," she said.

None of the patients who have been treated are being identified, but one was medically retired and has returned to work. Others in the trial are still walking despite being expected to need a wheelchair.

Treatment is likely to be very expensive. However, this is a moment of real hope in a disease that hits people in their prime and devastates families.

...

[...]

[Technology companies] have amassed “overwhelming evidence” that child-targeted marketing, and the excessive screen time it fuels, undermines healthy development. By the time a child turns 13, technology companies may have already amassed up to 72 million data points on them — and there is virtually no regulation governing how that information is used.

OECD data shows that 70 per cent of 10-year-olds in developed countries own a smartphone, and by age 15, at least half of them spend 30 or more hours a week on their devices.

[...]

When social psychologist Jonathan Haidt, author of The Anxious Generation, and a team of researchers collaborated on a Harris Poll of more than 500 children between the ages of eight and 12 in the United States, they found something striking.

While most children said they weren’t allowed out in public alone, and more than half had never walked down a grocery aisle unaccompanied or used a sharp knife, their online use was remarkably unsupervised.

But when asked how they prefer to spend their leisure time, only a quarter mentioned their devices, favouring free play with their friends. Eighty-seven per cent of surveyed children said they wished they could spend more time with their friends in person outside of school.

Parents and educators are navigating a world where screens, algorithms and AI companions compete for children’s attention and shape their development.

In this context, the humble call from kids for more unstructured play with friends is not nostalgia; it’s a health intervention. Protecting that space may do more to safeguard their cognitive and emotional growth than any app, program or device ever could.

• Ozone layer remains on track to recovery in coming decades
• WMO Ozone Bulletin says ozone hole in 2024 smaller than previous years
• Vienna Convention and Montreal Protocol show benefits of science for global action
• Stratospheric ozone protects people’s and planetary health
• Continued atmospheric monitoring is vital

[...]

“Forty years ago, nations came together to take the first step in protecting the ozone layer — guided by science, united in action,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.

“The Vienna Convention and its Montreal Protocol became a landmark of multilateral success. Today, the ozone layer is healing. This achievement reminds us that when nations heed the warnings of science, progress is possible,” he said.

To date, the Montreal Protocol has led to the phase-out of over 99% of the production and consumption of controlled ozone-depleting substances, which were used in refrigeration, air conditioning, firefighting foam and even hairspray. As a result, the ozone layer is now on track to recover to 1980s levels by the middle of this century, significantly reducing risks of skin cancer, cataracts, and ecosystem damage due to excessive UV exposure.

[...]

It’s not the first time that universities have gotten tangled up with developments that would later come to haunt them, explains Olivia Guest, computational cognitive scientist at Radboud University and lead author of the paper. ‘From combustion engines to tobacco, universities have been used in the past to whitewash now-controversial products. For a long time, the tobacco industry pointed to research it subsidized at universities to claim its products were healthy.’

In their article, a position paper released as a pre-print this month, the researchers warn similar entanglements are happening with artificial intelligence technologies now. ‘A lot of academic research on AI currently is also funded by the AI industry, which creates the risk of distorting scientific knowledge, similar to how we’ve seen happen in the past’, adds Iris van Rooij, co-author and professor of computational cognitive science at Radboud University [in the Netherlands].

...

The researchers explain that the current uncritical adoption of AI at the top level of universities actually is counter to what most students and staff want. ‘AI is often introduced into our classrooms and research environments without proper debate or consent,’ says van Rooij. ‘This is not just about using tools like ChatGPT. It’s about the broader influence of the tech industry on how we teach, how we think, and how we define knowledge.’

‘Study after study shows that students want to develop these critical thinking skills, are not lazy, and large numbers of them would be in favor of banning ChatGPT and similar tools in universities’, says Guest. By speaking up, the researchers aim to show that the ‘inevitability’ of AI is just a marketing frame perpetrated by the industry and that pushback is a lot more possible than we often see.

...

Guest, van Rooij and colleagues list a vast number of problematic aspects of AI technology in their paper. These range from the environmental issues (using vast amounts of energy and resources), illegal labor practices (such as plagiarism and theft of others’ writing), to risks of deskilling of students. Guest: ‘The uncritical adoption of AI can lead to students not developing essential academic skills such as critical thinking and writing. If students are taught to learn through automation, without learning about how and why things work, they won’t be able to solve problems when something actually breaks – which will be often, based on the AI output we now see.’

The researchers also warn of AI technology harming future research and enabling the spread of misinformation. ‘Within just a few years, AI has turbocharged the spread of bullshit and falsehoods. It is not able to produce actual, qualitative academic work, despite the claims of some in the AI industry. As researchers, as universities, we should be clearer about pushing back against these false claims by the AI industry. We are told that AI is inevitable, that we must adapt or be left behind. But universities are not tech companies. Our role is to foster critical thinking, not to follow industry trends uncritically.’

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/37637366

In mid-April 2025, a wave of videos swept through TikTok claiming that some brands of luxury leather goods, especially French ones, actually make their products in China. The content creators presented themselves as official manufacturers, urging customers to buy bags directly from the source at a fraction of the retail price.

...

The carefully orchestrated release of these videos coincided with the United States’ announcement of 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. With the use of catchy titles like “Luxury Brands Are All Made in China” or “Luxury Brands Lied to You”, content creators sought to draw customers directly to Chinese websites. This way, they would have a chance to bypass traditional distribution channels.

By offering their products on Chinese applications such as DHGate or Taobao – among the most downloaded in the United States in mid-April – Chinese manufacturers were clearly targeting the US market.

...

Almost exclusively European productions

The Chinese manufacturers behind the claims in the videos on TikTok explain their previous silence by citing confidentiality agreements. They seized the opportunity to convince Internet users that these iconic Italian or French brands had their leather goods produced in China, with the “Made in Italy” or “Made in France” labels added only after the final assembly step was carried out in Europe.

However, by showing bags resembling those made by Hermès and Louis Vuitton, the creators of these videos ultimately discredited their own claims.

Make no mistake: Hermès does not produce its bags in China. As stated in its 2024 universal registration document, 60 of its 75 production sites are in France. The others can be found in Italy (shoes), the United Kingdom (for the bootmaker John Lobb, which is owned by Hermès), Switzerland (watches), Australia (tanneries and precious leathers), the US, and finally Portugal, with two metal factories there – neither of which is involved in making bags.

...

Buyers of counterfeit products may face significant legal consequences. In France, they may be fined up to twice the value of the genuine product that has been counterfeited. So, if a bag suspiciously resembling a “Kelly” bag is offered for $1,000 on certain websites, the final bill could turn out to be far steeper, especially considering that the starting price of the authentic Hermès bag exceeds €10,000. In addition, buyers may be sentenced to three years’ imprisonment.

During a hearing in the French Senate in April 2025, Delphine Sarfati-Sobreira, the director-general of the Union of Manufacturers for the International Protection of Intellectual Property (Unifab), said [“France is the second-largest country in the European Union in terms of seizures of counterfeit goods”].

The video campaigns, viewed by millions, only fuel the counterfeit market. And buying directly from Chinese platforms does not completely exempt customers from paying customs duties. In the US, customs controls on orders from China have tightened, particularly for small packages below $800.

...

In mid-April 2025, a wave of videos swept through TikTok claiming that some brands of luxury leather goods, especially French ones, actually make their products in China. The content creators presented themselves as official manufacturers, urging customers to buy bags directly from the source at a fraction of the retail price.

...

The carefully orchestrated release of these videos coincided with the United States’ announcement of 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. With the use of catchy titles like “Luxury Brands Are All Made in China” or “Luxury Brands Lied to You”, content creators sought to draw customers directly to Chinese websites. This way, they would have a chance to bypass traditional distribution channels.

By offering their products on Chinese applications such as DHGate or Taobao – among the most downloaded in the United States in mid-April – Chinese manufacturers were clearly targeting the US market.

...

Almost exclusively European productions

The Chinese manufacturers behind the claims in the videos on TikTok explain their previous silence by citing confidentiality agreements. They seized the opportunity to convince Internet users that these iconic Italian or French brands had their leather goods produced in China, with the “Made in Italy” or “Made in France” labels added only after the final assembly step was carried out in Europe.

However, by showing bags resembling those made by Hermès and Louis Vuitton, the creators of these videos ultimately discredited their own claims.

Make no mistake: Hermès does not produce its bags in China. As stated in its 2024 universal registration document, 60 of its 75 production sites are in France. The others can be found in Italy (shoes), the United Kingdom (for the bootmaker John Lobb, which is owned by Hermès), Switzerland (watches), Australia (tanneries and precious leathers), the US, and finally Portugal, with two metal factories there – neither of which is involved in making bags.

...

Buyers of counterfeit products may face significant legal consequences. In France, they may be fined up to twice the value of the genuine product that has been counterfeited. So, if a bag suspiciously resembling a “Kelly” bag is offered for $1,000 on certain websites, the final bill could turn out to be far steeper, especially considering that the starting price of the authentic Hermès bag exceeds €10,000. In addition, buyers may be sentenced to three years’ imprisonment.

During a hearing in the French Senate in April 2025, Delphine Sarfati-Sobreira, the director-general of the Union of Manufacturers for the International Protection of Intellectual Property (Unifab), said [“France is the second-largest country in the European Union in terms of seizures of counterfeit goods”].

The video campaigns, viewed by millions, only fuel the counterfeit market. And buying directly from Chinese platforms does not completely exempt customers from paying customs duties. In the US, customs controls on orders from China have tightened, particularly for small packages below $800.

...

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/36401278

Euro zone businesses saw new orders increase in August for the first time since May 2024, helping overall activity expand at the fastest pace in 15 months despite persistent weakness in exports.

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI [Purchasing Manager Index] rose to 51.1 in August of 2025 from 50.9 in the previous month, beating market expectations of a slowdown to 50.7 to mark the sharpest pace of expansion in the bloc's private sector output since May of the previous year, according to a flash estimate.

[A PMI is diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, which is indicated by a number >50 - or contracting, suggested by a PMI <50.]

The growth was supported by a third straight expansion in the services sector (50.7 vs 51) and an unexpected rebound for manufacturers (50.5 vs 49.8), their first in over three years. New orders at the aggregate level increased for the first time in 14 months, despite a reduction in new export orders.

The signal of new capacity demand drove firms to increase their headcounts for the sixth straight month.

[...]

The UK S&P Global Composite PMI rose also to 53 in August of 2025 from 51.5 in the previous month, ahead of expectations that it would inch higher to 51.6 to set the sharpest growth rate in private-sector business activity in one year, according to a flash estimate. The expansion was carried by the services sector (53.6 vs 51.8 in July), which also rose to a one-year high, to offset a steeper contraction for service providers (47.3 vs 48).

The strong momentum for services in the UK drove new business volumes at the aggregate level to rise the most since October of last year, even though factories recorded the strongest decline ne new work since April, pressured by economic headwinds of higher input costs and a global protectionist swing to goods trade. Input inflation was at the highest since May, with firms citing the burden of higher National Insurance payments and their impact in labor costs.

Looking forward, business expectations for the upcoming year increased.

cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/36401278

Euro zone businesses saw new orders increase in August for the first time since May 2024, helping overall activity expand at the fastest pace in 15 months despite persistent weakness in exports.

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI [Purchasing Manager Index] rose to 51.1 in August of 2025 from 50.9 in the previous month, beating market expectations of a slowdown to 50.7 to mark the sharpest pace of expansion in the bloc's private sector output since May of the previous year, according to a flash estimate.

[A PMI is diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, which is indicated by a number >50 - or contracting, suggested by a PMI <50.]

The growth was supported by a third straight expansion in the services sector (50.7 vs 51) and an unexpected rebound for manufacturers (50.5 vs 49.8), their first in over three years. New orders at the aggregate level increased for the first time in 14 months, despite a reduction in new export orders.

The signal of new capacity demand drove firms to increase their headcounts for the sixth straight month.

[...]

The UK S&P Global Composite PMI rose also to 53 in August of 2025 from 51.5 in the previous month, ahead of expectations that it would inch higher to 51.6 to set the sharpest growth rate in private-sector business activity in one year, according to a flash estimate. The expansion was carried by the services sector (53.6 vs 51.8 in July), which also rose to a one-year high, to offset a steeper contraction for service providers (47.3 vs 48).

The strong momentum for services in the UK drove new business volumes at the aggregate level to rise the most since October of last year, even though factories recorded the strongest decline ne new work since April, pressured by economic headwinds of higher input costs and a global protectionist swing to goods trade. Input inflation was at the highest since May, with firms citing the burden of higher National Insurance payments and their impact in labor costs.

Looking forward, business expectations for the upcoming year increased.

Euro zone businesses saw new orders increase in August for the first time since May 2024, helping overall activity expand at the fastest pace in 15 months despite persistent weakness in exports.

The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI [Purchasing Manager Index] rose to 51.1 in August of 2025 from 50.9 in the previous month, beating market expectations of a slowdown to 50.7 to mark the sharpest pace of expansion in the bloc's private sector output since May of the previous year, according to a flash estimate.

[A PMI is diffusion index that summarizes whether market conditions are expanding, which is indicated by a number >50 - or contracting, suggested by a PMI <50.]

The growth was supported by a third straight expansion in the services sector (50.7 vs 51) and an unexpected rebound for manufacturers (50.5 vs 49.8), their first in over three years. New orders at the aggregate level increased for the first time in 14 months, despite a reduction in new export orders.

The signal of new capacity demand drove firms to increase their headcounts for the sixth straight month.

[...]

The UK S&P Global Composite PMI rose also to 53 in August of 2025 from 51.5 in the previous month, ahead of expectations that it would inch higher to 51.6 to set the sharpest growth rate in private-sector business activity in one year, according to a flash estimate. The expansion was carried by the services sector (53.6 vs 51.8 in July), which also rose to a one-year high, to offset a steeper contraction for service providers (47.3 vs 48).

The strong momentum for services in the UK drove new business volumes at the aggregate level to rise the most since October of last year, even though factories recorded the strongest decline ne new work since April, pressured by economic headwinds of higher input costs and a global protectionist swing to goods trade. Input inflation was at the highest since May, with firms citing the burden of higher National Insurance payments and their impact in labor costs.

Looking forward, business expectations for the upcoming year increased.