There might be some merits to this. Trump did recently, without a reason, changed his tune to protecting Ukraine again.
this post was submitted on 27 Sep 2025
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He's not stupid to attack a NATO member. So maybe Moldova? But then why is he testing the skies in the other end of Europe and not near Moldova? Nah, he's not going to attack anyone else.
Bait and switch? "Hey everyone look over here!"
Yep, but not just "look over here." He wants them to move their resources and position their defenses to respond from an attack in those areas. That will potentially leave them out of position to respond quickly to whatever he actually does.
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My money's on Poland.
Poland is ready for it, so probably not. Putin isn't one to start something with someone he knows can fight back. He wants a punching bag.
Then again, people around him tell him what he wants to hear. Like Ukrainians will welcome his troops in....
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Fresh looting for the war chest, old Vlad the Defenestrator thinks
I'll just be over here quietly cheering "two fronts" because I'm sure it'll go well for them
They should try their luck in Afghanistan again.
That would put them in direct competition with us now that Trump wants the air base back and says he is willing to go to war with Afghanistan to do it.
I'm not a history guy, when was the last time invading Afghanistan went well?
They call that place the graveyard of empires for a reason, I don't think it's ever gone well.
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That may sound cheer worthy, but considering they very obviously can't handle even 1 front, attacking another country would have to be for a different reason, a more problematic reason.
Can you expound on the later part of your thought? I'm struggling to picture a scenario in which the Kremlin purposefully opens a second front. The purpose of these airspace raids is to saber rattle and make it so Europe beefs up its defenses and is less likely to give equipment to Ukraine and instead use it domestically.
Russia haven't been able to fully mobilize their population for war. If Putin can convince Russians that they are in an existential war with NATO then he can introduce conscription. If he's able to double/triple the bodies on the front line in Ukraine then there a real possibility of overwhelming the defenders.
Except NATO could and would do the same, and even without the US the European members of the alliance have far greater manpower reserves than Russia. And better tech. And a larger manufacturing base. And more money. And better access to global markets. And navies to protect that access.
Attacking Ukraine was stupid. Attacking NATO would be nothing short of suicidal. Russia would lose a conventional war, and nobody wins a nuclear war.
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Russia is already using conscription in the war
https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/02/europe/putin-russia-spring-conscription-ukraine-intl
The main distinction is that there are laws (ha!) against sending improperly trained conscripts into "active combat". And while that can be potentially accelerated by claiming it is an emergency, it is much easier to just change the definition of "proper training"... which they already (allegedly) are.
But also? Russia already has massive morale and corruption issues. Giving even more untrained men guns is just a good way to have more mutinies and to have even more military gear show up on ebay/temu.
And also? Even if they triple the boots in Ukraine, having a second front (or one really giant front if it is all of NATO...) is not at all a worthy trade. Especially when those are fresh militaries with all the gear they had been holding back from Ukraine in case of this very scenario.
Nah. This is most likely the normal probing that putin does as standard practice with the added goal of scaring the EU into not wanting to support Ukraine in case Russia retaliates. Zelenskyy is just spinning this as the kind of bogeyman that would get his people much needed support.
Russian morale is absolutely dogshit right now. Among other things, soldiers are being forced to bribe their commanders if they want to leave the front (when they're scheduled to be rotated out). Those who refuse to pay up get detailed to under-equipped suicide attacks.
Oh, and soldiers who die are being marked AWOL so their families don't get death benefits, because the government has barely any money left to pay them, and they're being forced to offer huge signing bonuses just to get the manpower they need.
There are multiple reports in Russian-speaking outlets and communities about bribing to just skip some combat assignment, singular. Basically paying a subscription to your commander, at a variable rate, too.
Russia is already facing severe logistical and manpower issues that cannot be stemmed by importing foreign workers at this point..... But I'm sure the factories can continue to produce munitions with children in them, right?
munitions with children in them
That doesn't sound particularly effective.
THEY'RE DROPPING WIGGUMS RUN EVERYONE
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Sounds like an efficient way to lose Königsberg, Karelia and Crimea very quickly.
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Is it Cambodia?
That would suck cause they just endend that war with Armenia.
Is this you, Ken M?
Apparently, Putin never learned to swallow your food in manageable chunks before moving on. I think he will end up choking to death.
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Moldova is for sure not safe right now.
Yeah, I was reading earlier about Russian misinformation networks relating to Moldovan elections. Scary stuff.
But why? They can't even do one front well, Russia sucks at war
I have a pet theory that Putin is attempting to get a big reaction from NATO, so that he can then internally use that as an excuse why the war in Ukraine did not end well, and why they had to ultimately concede points they earlier held they wouldn’t in the eventual peace negotiations.
Not winning against Ukraine would be shameful for him, especially after all the messaging done about Ukraine not even being a real country.
Not winning against the entirety of NATO, on the other hand, sounds reasonable and understandable. But just saying that isn’t very persuasive. He needs imagery of destroyed Russian equipment in another NATO country or something concrete like that, to show that NATO truly is involved and waging war against Russia. That’s would also justify the initial reasoning for this misguided excursion — NATO is indeed warring against us, it was all justified! See these images of dead Russians in the Baltic Sea! The flaming Russian jets! See the havoc the big bad NATO wreaks on us poor Russians! We stand no chance, we have to settle for peace, those bullies are too strong now, and they are evil in their ways! In order to survive, we must concede a bit, lest NATO comes and bombs you and your family in the night like the thugs they are! gesturing at the constant dramatized imagery of destroyed Russian equipment in some NATO region
I’m convinced the economy, despite currently running on the war, is finally slowly collapsing to the point of it being visible to the peasants, perhaps showing inconvenient signs of that with the gas shortages across Russia, whatever else they are trying to keep under wraps. I think it’s starting to get embarrassing unless something changes and they can play victim to some bigger baddie yet again terrorizing good pious Russians. Maybe they have determined they can’t keep the effects contained no longer, and the seams will start to burst soon, so they need something that justifies the peace negotiations and conceding some of their strict conditions for the peace. Otherwise the people might just start seeing how fucked they are and rise up.
Nice take, I also subscribe to the theory that the Russian narrative is a lot more important than land gains. To be able to sell an "Underdog but growing empire despite evil holding us back" narrative would definitely be useful and a good exit strategy.
Not saying this is why... but in theory if he can go through another country to do an end around on Ukraine, he can trade that other country to keep Ukraine. Or even if nato needs to defend itself, it might not spend as much on defending Ukraine. Just guesses though. And they still seem like bad reasons.
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Russia isn't planning to invade Ukraine
- Zakharova on Feb 8 2022.
One guess is all that it should take, given the existing historical precedent.
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