this post was submitted on 24 Sep 2025
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[...]

Asked [...] if Estonia would be willing to host Britain’s future fleet of F-35A fighters, defence minister Hanno Pevkur replied, “I’m always open. The door is always open for allies.”

The comments follow the incursion of three Russian MiG-31s into Estonian skies last week. The aircraft, flying without transponders or flight plans, remained over the Gulf of Finland for twelve minutes before being escorted out by Italian F-35s from Ämari airbase.

[...]

Western leaders urged caution over escalating the stand-off. Mr Pevkur said NATO’s response should be “proportionate” and decided “case-by-case.” Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, struck a harder line, declaring: “We will shoot down any flying objects when they violate our territory and fly over Poland. There is absolutely no discussion over that.”

[...]

For Estonia, NATO’s smallest frontline state, the latest incursion [of Russian drones] was a stark reminder of its reliance on allied air power. “The question is not whether Russia will try again,” one official said, “but how we will respond.”

top 19 comments
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[–] Skua@kbin.earth 6 points 5 hours ago (2 children)

Britain, however, does not have nuclear weapons that go on these planes. All of our nukes are submarine-based.

[–] bilgamesch@feddit.org 1 points 1 hour ago (1 children)

So if they'd make a submarine form factor that can be mounted to the F35As hardpoints...

[–] Skua@kbin.earth 1 points 42 minutes ago

Don't be ridiculous. The missiles weigh twice what an F-35 does. We have to mount the plane to the missile

[–] remon@ani.social 6 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago) (1 children)

Yes, they would carry US nukes under the nuclear sharing program.

[–] Skua@kbin.earth 4 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

It seems a bit odd to not mention that there are already nuclear-capable NATO aicraft in Estonia, though. There are French Rafales (France actually has its own air-launched nukes) and Italian F-35As (another NATO nuclear sharing state) there right now

[–] remon@ani.social 3 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago) (1 children)

The entire article is odd. I think this is really just a random question from a reporter. No one is actually considering deploying nukes to Estonia.

[–] plyth@feddit.org 1 points 46 minutes ago* (last edited 36 minutes ago) (2 children)

No one is actually considering

Why not? It would be the best preparation for a nuclear war for the EU so some strategists must be considering it.

In reply to other comments:

The utility is the short reaction time. A fighter from Germany can be intercepted more easily.

Furthermore, if it comes down to nuclear war, the side who bombs first has a huge advantage. So we must be preparing for first strike.

[–] remon@ani.social 1 points 17 minutes ago* (last edited 12 minutes ago)

The utility is the short reaction time. A fighter from Germany can be intercepted more easily.

Yes, that's pretty much the only thing I can think of as well, but I don't think it matters.

Furthermore, if it comes down to nuclear war, the side who bombs first has a huge advantage. So we must be preparing for first strike.

Ok. If you're assuming NATO wants to do a nuclear first strike, the might be some value in that. But I don't think that should or will happen, even with Trump. So I'm not considering that for now.

So let's look what happens if Russia would start a nuclear war. Worst case scenario first: Russia launches ICBMs gains the US and Europe. In that case nukes dropped from airplanes only play a minor role. Within minutes after Russia's launches are detected US and British ICBM and SLBM will be launched as well. That means hundreds of nuclear warheads will be striking targets in less then an hour. Dropping some additional nukes from planes a few minutes faster is just pissing in the ocean at this point. MAD has been triggered, it won't make a difference of some nukes are 30 minutes late.

Now let's consider the "best case" scenario (highly speculative). Russia uses a single tactical nuke in Ukraine. Let's assume this won't trigger MAD. Now NATO has to response in some way. But don't think that dropping a nuke ASAP would be the response, so there is also no point in having some of them sitting right at the border. It will probably take days before NATO decides how to respond to that I think it might not involve nuclear weapons at all.

[–] remon@ani.social 1 points 41 minutes ago

It would be the best preparation for a nuclear war

I really don't see how.

[–] Corporal_Punishment@feddit.uk 6 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

Positioning our jets in a country on the border of Russia seems careless. They'd be extremely vulnerable during an invasion, drone or missile attack.

Northern Germany would make more sense

[–] bilgamesch@feddit.org 1 points 1 hour ago

I guess they're there for deterrence, not for actual use. That's what those nukes in germany are for.

[–] remon@ani.social 4 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

Not quite sure what would be the point.

Armageddon can wait the few extra minutes to fly in the jets from Germany.

[–] Quittenbrot@feddit.org 7 points 6 hours ago (1 children)

The point would be: sending the message that there are no "2nd class NATO countries" which we eventually wouldn't bother defending if push comes to shove. Its the determination that full defence begins from the first centimetre of allied territory and no country will be sacrified.

[–] remon@ani.social 3 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

You can make that point by stationing troops and other equipment there. Deploying nuclear weapons for that purpose makes no sense.

[–] Quittenbrot@feddit.org 3 points 4 hours ago (1 children)

Why not? It is probably the most valuable asset an army has and positioning it there shows the clear determination to defend the area at all costs.

[–] remon@ani.social 1 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago) (1 children)

It is probably the most valuable asset an army has

Not really. It has no tactical value being there, since we're not going to drop nukes on invading conventional forces. And while they are expensive for a single bomb, the plane that carries them still costs 4x as much. So what value are you talking about?

Their value is as strategic deterrent. And they can do that from almost anywhere.

Anyway ... I'm not even sure why this is a story.

Asked by The Telegraph if Estonia would be willing to host Britain’s future fleet of F-35A fighters

It seems this is just The Telegraph asking a silly hypothetical question that no one was actually considering in the first place.

A British military source cautioned there was “no need to have a strategic capability forward in a tactical position in Estonia

This really seems like British for "what a silly question". And they are right.

[–] Quittenbrot@feddit.org 2 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

So what value are you talking about?

Valuable as in: no military will let it fall into enemy hands.

[–] remon@ani.social 1 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago) (1 children)

Right, because they would immediately evacuate the bombs if that was even a remote possibility. A highly portable asset like a bomb just doesn't work very well as symbolic "line in the sand".

If you actually want to show determination for defending a position you bring in hard-to-move assets. A battalion of tanks, air defense system, troops, infrastructure. Those you would actually have to defend.

Also, if Russia would somehow get a hold of a B61, the damage would mostly be in prestige to the US and maybe some minor technology they could reverse engineer. But it wouldn't fundamentally change the balance of power, so not even that argument makes much sense.

[–] Quittenbrot@feddit.org 1 points 2 hours ago

Also, if Russia would somehow get a hold of a B61, the damage would mostly be in prestige to the US

Exactly.