Unfortunately the graph below is five years old. But look at how (1) we may have already reached peak consumption, (2) our exports have risen significantly, (3) our imports have dropped, and (4) our exports just surpassed our imports. I believe that our exports have risen much more in the last five years, since the Ukraine war started, specifically to Europe.
I wish I had an updated graph, because it ends where our flattened consumption reached parity with our sharply rising production. I’d really like to know what happened since.
In any case, because the US is now (I think) exporting more than it’s importing, maybe that creates some wiggle room for a peak oil shock, and if we truly have reached peak consumption already, that makes reaching peak production less anxiety-inducing.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php