news

is there any reason to believe that

a) mamdani will actually win in november despite both the DNC and GOP working against him, in addition to Cuomo and Adams running as independents AND

b) if he gets elected in november, the NYPD won't just hold his family hostage and threaten to harass/harm/kill them until he resigns or transmogrifies into a more pliant servant of capital AND

c) he won't shoot himself numerous times in the back of the head?

or am i just being a doomer? it feels impossible to me that the bourgeoisie are just gonna sit by and let this guy do good things in the largest city in the empire

The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei, addressed the nation:

– I offer my congratulations to the great nation of Iran; first, congratulations on the victory over the fake Zionist regime, and secondly, the victory over the American regime.

– The Americans entered the war directly because Israel would have completely lost and become hopeless otherwise.

– The U.S. gained nothing from this intervention, Trump greatly exaggerated what happened, and our nuclear sites remain unaffected.

– The enemies don't seek an end to Iran's missile or nuclear program, they seek an unconditional surrender, which our powerful nation will never accept.

– The U.S. needed to put on a show, and that's what they did. But Iran remains steadfast, and our progress continues.

• Telegram

Operation Barbarossa lasted 5 months 13 days, the Battle of Stalingard began seven months after Barbarossa ended and itself lasted 6 months 2 weeks 2 days

Just some historical facts for the 'Everything has to happen NOW, NOW, NOW gang'

Media now really pushing the attack failure narrative. Which would be fine I guess since it is true... but clearly angling for another strike

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114740882500667664

Jesus Christ this is sick and depraved

Daddy Trump - we have ~~created~~ discovered the intel you wanted!

CNN

CIA obtained "credible evidence" indicating Iran's nuclear program was "severely damaged," director says

CIA Director John Ratcliffe on Wednesday issued a statement saying that the agency had obtained “a body of credible evidence (that) indicates Iran’s Nuclear Program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes.” “This includes new intelligence from a historically reliable source/method that several key Iranian nuclear facilities were destroyed and would have to be rebuilt over the course of years,” Ratcliffe said.

The statement comes a day after CNN and other outlets reporting a preliminary Defense Intelligence Agency analysis produced roughly 24 hours after the strikes that found that the US bombing likely only set Iran’s ability to produce a nuclear weapon back by a matter of months. The White House has pushed back on that assessment, calling it “wrong.” President Donald Trump has said that the strikes “obliterated” Iran’s ability to produce a weapon.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard also posted on X on Wednesday that “new intelligence” supported the notion that Iran’s nuclear facilities were “destroyed” in the strikes. “New intelligence confirms what @POTUS has stated numerous times: Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed,” Gabbard posted on X on Wednesday without providing evidence. “If the Iranians chose to rebuild, they would have to rebuild all three facilities (Natanz, Fordow, Esfahan) entirely, which would likely take years to do.”

(Could be a false alarm but) Telegram channels I’m following announced five minutes ago that Tehran, Shiraz, and Hamadan just activated their air defenses. The entity can’t help bombing brown folks, even when it would clearly help them a great deal to take a break for at least a day or two.

The game theory academic who became famous on youtube a day or two ago is predicting that the USA is going to do a (suicidal) ground invasion of Iran. I can also hear Justin Podur saying that all this shit with Trump getting angry at Netanyahu is just for show.

I drove myself ever so slightly mad calculating some very rough estimates related to the US bombings of Iran, and how they compare to various other US equipment, as part of a broader discussion, but it was buried deep-ish in a thread, so I'm linking it for visibility - https://hexbear.net/comment/6278398 (if this isn't allowed - feel free to delete this comment, or I can just delete it myself)

Will welcome any commentary, I feel like I must have fucked up something with the numbers or my assumptions, even if they are very rough estimates, but I dunno. I could never make it as an accountant, respect the number troops for all they do (well, except for the McKinsey ghouls calculating how many people to fire I guess)

Like Lazarus I return from the dead, well less dramatic than that I've been gone for like 4 months? Mostly been touching grass maxing and doing stuff that matters.

Which is something I really recommend for people here, just like the theory of humors your leftists juices are going to be in inbalanced if all you do is posting and doomscrolling. If those juices are left imbalanced for long enough it'll pickle your brain which is not good folks. Not good at all.

With rambling and ranting done it's time to give my quick thoughts on things which you aren't allowed to answer to because it'd make this whole post even longer so in the whole Iran-Israel/US war Iran obviously won and all the people saying 'ehrm actually' sound like yanks who are trying to tell me that they didn't lose Afghanistan, Yemen or Vietnam.

Now onto what people care about capital before I left my big thing was basically saying that was looking away from the US and more towards the EU and I'm somewhat right. Capital is not running away from the US obviously but it has gradually shifted and us exceptionalism is dead at least for as long as Trump is president so where has it gone to? Well it has stayed in europe and slightly gone into Germany and one continent I haven't considered South America, one just has to see how much the IMF is bending over backwards for Argentina by not calling in its debt to make sure the country doesn't collapse under the weight of its presidents idiotic decisions. This seems to be part of a broader tactic to 'promote growth and deregulation' If capital starts to feel more welcome in these economies at a time when the US appears to be actively trying to discourage foreign capital then this stream is going to grow. Additionally Latin America has the advantage of still being part of what the US views as its sphere of influence.

An index fund of Mexican stocks is currently up 14.4%, while an index fund of Brazilian stocks is up 14.22% year to date. Compared to the Nasdaq which is up 3%.

Now the EU as a whole had less of a 'stock glow up' as Latin america with an Index only up 7.5% but and this is kinda what I was talking about but while the German economy is in the dumpster the DAX is up 18.5% year to date. Which leads me to talk about GERMANY.

That's right you didn't think I'd skip the worst country on the continent and runner up for worst country in the world.

Now I've ranted about Germany for a while now but since I've stopped talking about those things I bet you thought things didn't get worse. Wrong.

So generally germany is in fullblown Islamophobia, talking US after 9/11 levels of Islamophobia where seemingly everything that's wrong with germany is the fault of the insidious musleman.

This is paired with german journalists during the whole Iran islam war going pretty mask off now apart from Julian Reichelt, who is an outright nazi and used to be the editor for the basically the german 'The Sun', the rest are all 'respectable' and 'centrists'. Which more or less just confirms what I've been saying for years where the current center lies in germany.

But this is just ambient nazi shit I come to expect from the good ole germans no what is more concerning is Germany putting a lot more money into it's army.

The federal government intends to achieve the NATO target of 5 percent of GDP for military and other war-related spending by 2029, the army budget will increase from €52 billion in 2024 to €153 billion in 2029. That is just under 27 percent of the total budget, up from 11 percent previously. Now if we look at how this first raise was 'afforded' it was done by slashing healthcare in 2022 healthcare spending was 64.5bn in 2023 it was 24.5bn and in 2024 16.2bn. Education and Living has also have had cuts of their budget of up to 5%.

Now that alone is bad enough but there's more as always fhe federal government is cutting the funding for naval rescues in the mediterrean sea, basically the country that loudly yelled at the inhumanity of people drowning at sea during the start of the syrian civil war now is more than ok with people drowning again.

But wait there's more, obviously there's a whole bunch of 'renewed militarism'. And here's where I get going, so germanys most beloved politician, the minister of war, has time and time again brought up the topic of mandatory service, because not enough people want to die for germanys imperial ambitions for some reason. Now mandatory military service currently is only suspended so he could just declare it active again with no recourse and my guess is that over the next few years they'll bring this topic up over and over again to soften the blow when they pull the trigger. Basically if the austerity doesn't drive enough people into the army for employment they can just legally do it and the germans are the most legal minded people so doubt on any instability from this. Obviously of course austerity will also drive up fascism but I think at this point that's a given.

With this rising militarism and fascism massive spending (If germany continues to cut spending on social programs and goes for the NATO 5% 40% of its budget would be to pay for the army, I think that's unlikely but hey maybe I'm not savy about the depravity of the germans.), what we are going to see is a massively imperialist Germany that would more than likely seek to get a 'return on their investment'. The most likely targets would be the EU if they don't play ball and Africa to regain their place in the sun probably doing some evil shit with Frances coordination.

Thankfully it's not like the German left fully support this endeavour, wait I'm getting new information that the war minister is from the SPD and that the finance minister is also from the SPD well.... that's just....wait they started this whole thing under a SPD-Greens-Neoliberal government? Well you better hope that Linke will be able to do anything but it's doubtful.

TL;DR Germany is going to do fascism through huge austerity and imperialism in 2029 probably by invading Libya for the sake of 'stability'.

“DHS Awards $94 Million in Grants to Help Protect 512 Jewish Faith-Based Organizations from Targeted Violence and Terrorism”

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/06/27/dhs-awards-94-million-grants-help-protect-512-jewish-faith-based-organizations

Definitely genuine concern about religious bigotry, for sure. Anyone playing into the “spike in antisemitism” smear is covering for Zionist genocide, intentionally or unintentionally

very good Iran , you waited for the new newsmega.

if this happens as described, political islam is so dead, it's not even funny. Just endless saudi sponsorships for jihad to privatize national assets and normalize with entity, simply incredible.

Get ready for the worst pronounciations of Qatar you’ve ever heard

“””ceasefires””” and unending aerial bombardment, israel’s fav combo. Anyways nobody on either side have confirmed this so grain of 🧂. Don’t play into the Zionist psywar

Two of the special guests present at this year's annual World Economic Forum's "Summer Davos" in Tianjin, China, were Kissinger protégé Graham Allison, and war criminal Tony Blair.

Update on Fordow. Israel went back and bombed the entrances and exits, and access roads, effectively entombing the facility. Even if the 12 GBU-57 MOPs didn't do the damage, the facility is entombed when combined with Iran filling the other entrances and exits with soil. The US did similar at Isfahan with Tomahawk land attack missiles.

Israel will likely seek a ceasefire agreement that keeps these facilities entombed, permanently, especially in the case of Isfahan where the underground facilities were not directly attacked, just the entrances, exits, and above ground facilities. There have been two big indications from Israeli sources leaning in this direction. First, this from Barak David at Axios. I'll quote the key passage:

Two Israeli officials also claimed that intelligence shows Iran's stockpile of 60% and 20% enriched uranium is now buried beneath rubble at Isfahan and Fordow — and it's unclear whether Iran will be able to recover it in the near future.

Then this statement from the Israeli damage assessment, posted by Trump:

This achievement can continue indefinitely if Iran does not get access to nuclear material.

some comments by the Polish osint guy from yesterday...

About Iranian drones... Iran sold Russia the license and documentation for producing the Shahed 136. Russia paid Iran in gold. The first 1000 were delivered by Iran, Russia also builds them in a factory cluster in Alabuga/Yelabuga. When Russia does drone attacks on Ukraine they use 300-500 for a single operation. Russia uses around 100 a day. Iran used around 500 drones in 12 days and 99% of them were shot down. Some were shot down by US missiles which were supposed to be going to Ukraine but were diverted to US bases in West Asia instead. Jordan agreed for its airspace to be used. Syria didn't but Israel didn't care and flew AH-64 Apache helicopters and F-16 Sufa jets over the airspace to shoot the drones down. The fact that Iranian drones didn't play a larger role in the conflict is puzzling. One explanation is Iran was expecting a long war of attrition against US military bases in the region so they were saving them for after the US officially entered the war. Another theory is Israel destroyed them before they could be used. It's also possible Iran didn't have many to begin with because they didn't think they would be needed. When they did strikes on Saudi targets in the past they only used 3 or 4 per operation (I guess he's talking about 2019 here... looking around a bit and it seems that was Yemen launching them though, not Iran)

About the Iranian airforce... The Iranian airforce might not be modern but since the country is large and mountainous they should still have been able to orchestrate some ambush attacks in valleys and by flying close to the earth (similar to North Vietnamese MiG-21 attacks on US forces during the Vietnam war). There were no air battles during these 12 days. There is some footage of Iranian F-4 phantoms flying by, but not much else. Iranian airport runways were damaged, and 10-12 Iranian F-14s were also damaged while on the ground. Also since most of the Iranian airforce planes are old they rely more on coordination with on-the-ground operators/air command, which in turn relies on long range radio-location stations to get info about where the enemy is and directs the Iranian planes where to ambush the enemy. A lot of that on-the-ground infrastructure was damaged or destroyed by Israeli commandos so the pilots were left in a fog without guidance from the ground. Iran's radio-location stations are also dated technologically so they didn't detect the F-35s, which have modern stealth tech.

About Iranian ballistic missiles... Around 4-7% Iranian missiles hit their target in the beginning, the rate increased to 35% and then 50% toward the end of the war, while the missile count went down to 20 per attack, and they were launched every second day. If we average it across the 12 days it was around a 25% hit rate, even taking into account US support like THAADs, MIM-104 Patriots, SM-3s. Since each incoming missile requires a few attempts to shoot down, Israel was starting to run out of missiles fast and some experts say they had enough left for 2 or 3 more days. Iran entered the war with 2000 mid-range (1300-2000km) ballistic missiles, used around 600, around 300 were destroyed/disabled/blocked, so they still had around 800-1000 left. Israel damaged the entrances to Iran's missile launch sites but attempts were made to re-open them during the war.

While 65% of Iranian anti-air was destroyed, footage of Israeli F-15s and F-16s shows them carrying 3 or 4 fuel tanks each, so that's 70-80% of the load occupied by fuel. It's a long flight to Iran. They were usually carrying maneuvering missiles like Delilah used for precision strikes.

Israel did more damage to Iran overall but if the war was going well for them they wouldn't have agreed to a ceasefire/pause. Western media and doctors in Israel are reporting obsessive censorship around damaged targets so that suggests they got hit hard and are trying to hide it. None of the parties in the war felt like they were winning so they decided it's better to stop for now.

Israel is violating the ceasefire and bombing Lebanon at the moment. The area hit is in the south of the country, with reports in Al-Ayshiyah, Wadi Kfar Melki, Al-Mahmoudiya, Ansar, Jbaa and Zrariyeh.

• Telegram

https://en.mehrnews.com/news/233551/US-base-in-Syria-comes-under-attack

Mortar attack on US base in Syria.

US base in Syria comes under attack

TEHRAN, Jun. 23 (MNA) – News sources reported a mortar attack on a US base in Syria. Informed sources announced on Monday that an American military base in Syria has been attacked.

The sources stated that the American military base in an area in western Hasakah province of Syria was targeted.

These sources announced that following the attack strict security measures were taken at the main entrance.

There’s one way Trump can get Israel to stop dropping bombs and firing missiles

: "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT! To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!"

Who the fuck put electoralism in my news mega? Thank you @carpoftruth@hexbear.net for diverting it.

Something I missed yesterday, to do with this, the entombment of underground nuclear facilities in Iran. Israeli public broadcaster Kan News is now reporting that there is an unofficial agreement/understanding that Iran can't excavate their underground nuclear facilities, otherwise they'll face US military action. The facilities have to remain entombed, at least for now. Israeli state media source so of course remain highly skeptical, but it does line up with the events of the past few days. It also shows that Israel at the very least is pushing hard to keep these facilities entombed. The only thing Iran have done so far is fill up the two craters at Natanz from the two GBU-57 MOP strikes there with lots of soil. Good idea to prevent any potential radiation leakage.

The US warned Iran to stay away from nuclear sites bombed in recent strikes, to prevent Tehran from recovering enriched uranium possibly buried beneath the rubble.

American and Israeli intelligence are closely monitoring the Fordow and Isfahan facilities, where uranium stockpiles may have been stored prior to the attacks, Kan News reports.

A senior Israeli official told Kan that if Iran attempts to extract the uranium, “it’s up to the US” to decide how to respond.

English translation of the Kan News report

"This is an absolutely unprovoked aggression against Iran. [Russia was] striving to provide assistance to the Iranian people," Putin said when meeting with Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister. Russia said that the irresponsible US decision violated the UN Charter.

According to Reuters, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wrote a letter to Putin in his own handwriting, asking for Russia's support against the US. Despite this, Putin is still reluctant and still prefers the path of the UN and dialog.

• Telegram

BBC: MI6 distances its new chief from Nazi grandfather standard

Israeli doomers do make it funnier

“The main problem is that the Iranians are going to build a much larger missile industry... Everyone sees how large salvos work.

It's not nuclear, it's much harder to stop it without entering a war of attrition.

Ceasefire shit. They sold us out and in the future we'll be paid back with interest.“

“They're taking us back to the old days of two-week operations and then a ceasefire.”

“It has to be said, they took us for a ride.”

NPR

As Iran and Israel fought, people turned to AI for facts. They didn't find many.

It's unknown what percentage of people use AI for news but it could very roughly be ~7%.

Social media companies and makers of AI chatbots have not shared data about how often people use chatbots to seek out information on current events, but a Reuters Institute report published in June showed that about 7% of users in the dozens of countries the institute surveyed use AI to get news. When asked for comment, X, OpenAI, Google and Anthropic did not respond.

Novara media had some peace studies professor on, and that guy (as well as interviewer) somehow think Iran has/had a chance to avoid a war (yes that's basically how he phrased it) if they just keep quiet and don't respond. How tf can you study this your whole life and think this whole escalation ladder wasn't gamed out by a bunch of nerds, and that the US is following a plan here.

It's so blatant in this instance especially, what with the US clearly constantly choosing to provoke an escalation and using diplomacy just as cover for sneak attacks. Obviously they're not here to do a one-off bombing raid. If Iran doesn't respond they'll poke them more, and if they still don't respond they'll just cook up some narrative how they're weak and this proves that regime change is just behind the ~~corner~~ next bombing run and why let this chance slip through our fingers, and how to be absolutely sure that Iran can't get the bomb, regime change is definitely necessary, or maybe they'll say they didn't actually destroy Iran's nuclear program and they're definitely making a bomb right now under a children's hospital or whatever they can come up with.

The only reason why Iran would respond cautiously is to make the US look bad, but at this point how much of difference does that make? People have already made up their mind, the spin doctors are already spinning, and they'll ignore international and public opinion as best they can like they always do anyway.

Meanwhile in the AES:
https://xcancel.com/peoplesdispatch/status/1937246785199583450

In yet another assertion of sovereignty, the government of Niger announced that it would nationalize the Somaïr uranium venture, wresting control from the multinational nuclear fuel cycle corporation Orano.