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175

Bulletins and News Discussion from June 23rd to June 29th, 2025 - Iran, Harden Your Deep Military Sites (hexbear.net)

submitted 2 months ago by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

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Image is of the damage caused by an Iranian Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile in Israel, causing dozens of injuries.

Now in our second week of the conflict, we have seen continuing damage to both Israel and Iran, as well as direct US intervention which nonetheless seems to have caused limited damage to Fordow and little damage to Iran's nuclear program. Regime change seems more elusive than ever, as even Iranians previously critical of the government now rally around it as they are attacked by two rabid imperialists at once. And Iran's government is tentatively considering a withdrawal, or at minimum a reconsideration, of their membership to the IAEA and the NPT. And, of course, the Strait of Hormuz is still a tool in their arsenal.

A day or so on from the strike on Fordow, we have so far seen basically no change in strategy from the Iranian military as they continue to strike Israel with small barrages of missiles. Military analysts argue furiously - is this a deliberate strategy of steady attrition on Israel, or indicative of immense material constraints on Iran? Are the hits by Israel on real targets, or are they decoys? Does Iran wish to develop a nuke, or are they still hesitating? Will Iran and Yemen strike at US warships and bases in response to the attack, or will they merely continue striking only Israel?

And perhaps most importantly - will this conflict end diplomatically due to a lack of appetite for an extended war (to wit: not a peace but a 20 year armistice) or with Israel forced into major concessions including an end to their genocide? Or even with a total military/societal collapse of either side?

Last week's thread is here. The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.

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[–] seaposting@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago

Economic Watch: ASEAN integration drives development of independent regional financial system, analyst says

"The push for the use of local currencies has been ongoing for some time, as it helps strengthen the economic integration of ASEAN member states -- an important goal that ASEAN seeks to pursue. In fact, other regions are also moving away from relying too heavily on a single foreign currency, such as the U.S. dollar, as external interest rates and shifting government policies may cause significant volatility in currency exchange," she explained, adding that volatility is undesirable in any business.

…

"The Regional Payment Connectivity (RPC) initiative was first established to strengthen payment connectivity among the five ASEAN members, notably Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and the Philippines. To date, the initiative has expanded to include central banks of Vietnam, Laos, Brunei and Cambodia," she said.

Lee also noted that the ASEAN push for local currencies and reduced dependency on external monetary systems has gained momentum amid growing awareness of the risks posed by relying on the U.S. dollar.

[–] LoveWitch@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (18 children)

Comrades, I hate to say it but

Did trump just play 5D chess?

A bunker buster strike to appease the Israelis that didn’t bust any bunkers and an arranged counter strike that didn’t strike nothing and no war in the Middle East but the Israel lobby can’t complain?

If the above is true, and I don’t know right know if I believe it is, then this is a masterpiece of stringing thread through eyes of needles.

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[–] Jabril@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (4 children)

I watched Brian Berletic’s latest on Iran yesterday, I check in about once a month these days because he repeats the same things a lot. One thing he’s been talking about for a decade and which I haven’t seen mentioned here is the 2009 Brookings Institution analysis paper Which Path to Persia?, a pdf of which which can be downloaded for free from their website here

picture of table of contents

Brian goes over it in his videos on the subject, but it is definitely worth a look because it really does lay out the exact strategy the US has been following since 2009. Here's a link to his latest video that starts when he dives into the paper

here's a link to his 2012 article on this paper

Some quotes Brian touches on:

spoiler

For those who favor regime change or a military attack on Iran (either by the United States or Israel), there is a strong argument to be made for trying this option first. Inciting regime change in Iran would be greatly assisted by convincing the Iranian people that their government is so ideologically blinkered that it refuses to do what is best for the people and instead clings to a policy that could only bring ruin on the country. The ideal scenario in this case would be that the United States and the international community present a package of positive inducements so enticing that the Iranian citizenry would support the deal, only to have the regime reject it. In a similar vein, any military operation against Iran will likely be very unpopular around the world and require the proper international context— both to ensure the logistical support the operation would require and to minimize the blowback from it. The best way to minimize international opprobrium and maximize support (however, grudging or covert) is to strike only when there is a widespread conviction that the Iranians were given but then rejected a superb offer—one so good that only a regime determined to acquire nuclear weapons and acquire them for the wrong reasons would turn it down. Under those circumstances, the United States (or Israel) could portray its operations as taken in sorrow, not anger, and at least some in the international community would conclude that the Iranians “brought it on themselves” by refusing a very good deal."

spoiler

The truth is that these all would be challenging cases to make. For that reason, it would be far more preferable if the United States could cite an Iranian provocation as justification for the airstrikes before launching them. Clearly, the more outrageous, the more deadly, and the more unprovoked the Iranian action, the better off the United States would be. Of course, it would be very difficult for the United States to goad Iran into such a provocation without the rest of the world recognizing this game, which would then undermine it. (One method that would have some possibility of success would be to ratchet up covert regime change efforts in the hope that Tehran would retaliate overtly, or even semi-overtly, which could then be portrayed as an unprovoked act of Iranian aggression. This suggests that this option might benefit from being held in abeyance until such time as the Iranians made an appropriately provocative move, as they do from time to time. In that case, it would be less a determined policy to employ airstrikes and instead more of an opportunistic hope that Iran would provide the United States with the kind of provocation that would justify airstrikes. However, that would mean that the use of airstrikes could not be the primary U.S. policy toward Iran (even if it were Washington’s fervent preference), but merely an ancillary contingency to another option that would be the primary policy unless and until Iran provided the necessary pretext.

The most important point Brian drives home is this: Iran is one domino on the way towards China, and nothing is stopping the US from continuing down this path. Any talk of negotiations, not wanting war or escalation, etc is running cover for the next phase of US led, authorized, and planned escalation towards maintaining global hegemony.

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[–] la_tasalana_intissari_mata@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago

Beersheve

[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago (1 children)

PSL in the U.S.: With attack on Iran, Trump shatters hopes for peace - Prensa Latina

Article

Washington, 23 jun (Prensa Latina) El Partido para el Socialismo y la Liberación (PSL) advirtió que, con el ataque de Estados Unidos a Irán, el presidente Donald Trump destroza hoy las esperanzas de paz.

The U.S. political organization, founded in 2004, said in a statement that Trump's actions, based on lies, could plunge the Middle East and perhaps the world into an even more devastating conflict, “possibly triggering a regional and global war.”

Trump lied when he promised to keep the peace in the United States; he also lied when he said Iran was about to develop a nuclear weapon, contrary to the opinion of his own intelligence community, he noted.

The PSL recalled that, since the George W. Bush administration, the United States has invaded Afghanistan, Iraq, bombed Libya, Syria and Yemen, and made possible the Israeli genocide in Gaza.

It also criticized that, in his speech to the nation to announce the attack on Iran, President Trump thanked and congratulated “Prime Minister Bibi (Benjamin) Netanyahu”.

The statement asserted that indeed “the hypocrisy is striking” because “Israel is a nuclear weapons state, but refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the United States has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and is the only country to have used nuclear weapons in a war.”

The allegation that “Iran is developing nuclear weapons” is a poor imitation of George W. Bush's lie about Iraq's alleged “weapons of mass destruction,” which is equally false, he said. The American people do not want another endless war and will take to the streets to shout “No to war against Iran”, he concluded.

Just this Sunday there were demonstrations in New York's Times Square and in front of the White House, as a reflection of the discontent of many sectors of US society opposed to the escalation of the war.

Some reports indicate that the mobilization in the heart of Manhattan gathered around five thousand people who chanted “Hands off Iran!”, “No to the US-Israel war against Iran!” and “No to World War III!” and raised signs reading “Peace now, war never”, among other messages.

Similar slogans were heard in front of the core of U.S. power, where groups of protesters responded to the call of the peace organizations CodePink and ANSWER Coalition.

On Saturday afternoon, President Trump announced on Truth Social, “We have completed our successful strike against the three nuclear facilities in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.” Shortly afterwards before TV cameras he called the operation a “spectacular military success.”

Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian warned the day before that the attack ordered by Trump on nuclear facilities in his country proves that the United States is the main architect of the hostile actions of the Zionist regime of Israel against the Islamic Republic.

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Patriot PAC 3 kinetic interceptors going up against Iranian short range ballistic missiles in Qatar

Another video, warning for distressing screams

Video 3

Video 4

Piece of a Patriot PAC 3 kinetic interceptor

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (6 children)

As for why Iran would enter a ceasefire, hypothetically. After a few days, Iran tried to enter a war of attrition with Israel, firing off small salvos of ballistic missiles at Israel from missile bases in the centre and east of the country where Israel couldn't reach. However, this limits Iran on the kind of ballistic missiles it can use, Qassem series and Kheibar Shekan-1 don't have the range for this. The war of attrition strategy also relies on keeping the second line of missile bases, in the centre and east of Iran, safe from Israeli airstrikes. With Israel conducting strikes on Yadz yesterday, 1850km from Tel Aviv directly via the air, the strategy is no longer viable. Both Qadr and Emad, enlarged SCUD B derivatives and the missiles Iran has the most of, the backbone of their missile force/deterrent towards Israel, have less than 1850km range. Kheibar Shekan-2 also has less than 1850km range. Thus if Israel can reach as far as Yadz, these missiles are out of the fight. If Iran were to continue attacks on Israel, they'd be left with the Khorramshahr/R-27 Zyb series, Fattah-1 on an extended range trajectory, and Sejjil. That's it.

How viable is it to continue the war against Israel with the missile forces in this state? To me this is the definition of not viable. All these three models of missiles are in very limited numbers. Sejjil is more of a technology demonstrator for a multi stage solid fueled ballistic missile than a battlefield weapon, which is why a grand total of 1 has been fired towards Israel so far. The Khorramshahr series (1, 2 and 4), Iran won't want to fire lots of them, especially 4. These missiles have the largest payload capacity and re entry vehicles, it would be the easiest to make a nuclear warhead for. Fattah-1 is Iran's most advanced ballistic missile, how many of them do they have, and how's the performance affected by extending the range beyond 1850km, the original range is 1400km. Might be fine for Yemen to do this, but not for Iran who will have different strategic aims.

It also has to be noted that Israel were only able to strike Yadz after the US offensive intervention, where they fired 31 anti radiation missiles towards Iranian air defence radars according to statements by the US general. Opening up more air corridors into Iran has been a very convenient side effect of the US operation for Israel.

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[–] larrikin99@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (2 children)

It's likely Iran will now have months or years to reinforce their defense.

I don't know how they should address their internal security problems. Stricter movement controls, firewalls, surveillance, social welfare, affirmative action, federalization, seems like a lot to accomplish in a short time

For air defenses, they'll likely need to look to China since Russia is occupied with Ukranian drones. For China, wouldn't the value of being able to test their equipment (Their personnel as well if they're discreet) to gain experience at running an air defense network against western 5th gen planes be extremely valuable, even more than the cost of the batteries they send? US retaliation would be sending more Patriots and PrSM to Taiwan?

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[–] OnceUponATimeInWeHo@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago) (1 children)

Please be true, posted 2 min ago (lmao the humiliation)

“An informed source told Fars News: The ceasefire plan proposed by US President Donald Trump is completely false and was put forward with the aim of diverting public opinion from the recent humiliation of the United States in attacking its bases in the region.

🔸Noting that no official or unofficial proposal for a ceasefire has been received from Iran, this source emphasized: In response to this media atmosphere, the Islamic Republic of Iran will show the Zionist regime the falsehood of this claim in practice and on the ground in the coming hours.”

https://t.me/farsna/379101

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[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Haaretz - Israel-Iran War: Five Key Questions About Trump's Dramatic Cease-fire Announcement

It's a very useful article because it's in a question/answer style. I wish American websites would do this and do it all the time. It's very annoying to read articles that are all over the place. I only quoted the parts of the answers that interested me.

Snippets

What are the exact terms of the cease-fire agreement?

The only publicly available information comes from what the American president chose to share with his millions of followers. [...] What promises did the Americans make to Israel, and the Qataris to Iran? Did either side agree to future limitations on its conduct? Are there established boundaries for retaliation in case of cease-fire violations? Did Iran make any concessions related to its nuclear program, or what remains of it? Has Israel received any guarantees from Trump on that issue?

For now, we are in the dark about these key issues, and they could determine both the durability of this cease-fire, and the main threats to its longer-term viability.

How bad is the damage to Iran's nuclear sites?

As the dust begins to settle, we still don't know the extent of the damage caused to [the installations at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan], or how long it might take Iran to repair them, should it choose to do so. [...] If parts of these sites still exist, and Iran tries to use what is left of them to push forward with its nuclear program, the period of peace and stability we have been promised could turn out to be a rather short one.

What happened to Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium?

Where Iran is currently storing it [we] don't know, and it may take a long time before we'll have an answer. [...] Israel will obviously try to use its intelligence penetration of Iran to gather more information on the stockpile – and perhaps to seize it or destroy it. Such actions could trigger an Iranian response, and the fighting could resume almost exactly where it left off.

Does the cease-fire agreement also include the Houthis in Yemen?

[[unaswered]] Whether or not they are part of the Israel-Iran cease-fire is an important question – especially in light of a potential Israeli shortage of defensive interceptors.

What will be the impact on the war in Gaza?

With the Iran front at least temporarily closed, Israel will now turn its focus completely to Gaza.

---

Since I posted this about an hour ago - I've been thinking with dread nearly every minute about the answer to question five . And I'll be thinking about it a lot in the coming days.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 41 points 2 months ago (9 children)

Reza Pahlavi - Spoiler alert: "Victory is in our hands."

My fellow compatriots,

We are now moving to the final phase of our struggle. It will be hard. But the regime is weak. It is near collapse. Only we, the Iranian people, can end it.

To the military—as you’re given orders to lash out at the people—stand down. This is your final chance. You are being watched. We will remember who stood with the people and who committed crimes against them.

To the world—do not save this corrupt, crumbling, terrorist regime. At this historic moment, stand with the Iranian people. Shield them from the regime’s desperate backlash. Do not prop up a regime that will, soon again, turn its guns, missiles, and terror toward you.

Do not fear. Be bold. Victory is in our hands.

[The message in Persian.]

https://xcancel.com/PahlaviReza/status/1937487862133354625#m

[–] geikei@hexbear.net 40 points 2 months ago

Most unemployed man alive

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[–] Redcuban1959@hexbear.net 40 points 2 months ago (1 children)

Dnepropetrovsk. They report that they have attacked one of the factories, as well as the railways through which the Ukrainian Armed Forces group is supplied

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[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 40 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

If Iran is to retaliate against US military bases, what ballistic missiles will they use? US military bases are much closer to Iran (and Iraq for the Popular Mobilisation Forces) than Israel is, which allows for a lot more different missiles to be used. Now all of these missiles are more modern, solid fueled ballistic missiles capable of maneuvering within the earth's atmosphere with a seperate warhead or Maneuverable Re-entry Vehicle (category 3 on the graphic below), and all of them (except Dezful) can be fitted with electro optical seekers for terminal guidance and improved accuracy (often called Mobin or Basir variants), or for use against ships. So we can expect significantly higher accuracy over the shorter ranges, especially if the Basir variants are used.

Missiles with maximum range listed:

Fateh-110 series: 300km.
Fateh 313: 300-400km.
Raad 500/Tankeel: 500km.
Zulfiqar: 700km
Dezful: 1000km.
Qassem Basir: 1200-1300km.

Trajectory for missiles with a long enough range that they exit the earth's atmosphere, Zulfiqar, Dezful and Qassem Basir:

Possible trajectory for the missiles that don't exit earth's atmosphere, 500km range and below:

[–] MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net 40 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Just want to point out that Qatar has 11 Patriot batteries of it's own, with 786 PAC 3 or PAC 3 MSE kinetic interceptors, and 246 PAC 2 blast fragmentation interceptors. So Qatar could have conducted a lot of the interceptions themselves, maybe even all of them if they had advanced warning of an attack.

Qatar has, according to public arms sales data, 11 Patriot batteries consisting of:

11 AN/MPQ-65 Radars
11 AN/MSQ-132 Engagement Control Systems/command centres
30 Antenna Mast Groups
44 M902 launchers (can fit a maximum of 4 PAC 2, or 16 PAC 3, or 12 PAC 3 MSE each, or a combined loadout).
246 PATRIOT PAC 2 GEM-T interceptors.
768 PATRIOT PAC-3 interceptors
11 Electrical Power Plants.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 40 points 2 months ago (2 children)

I wondered what sort of shit I could find if I googled Trump "wartime president". I found this right away.

It was a flinty performance on the night he became a wartime president, although it came with flashes of vulnerability.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/06/22/donald-trump-speech-iran-attack/

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[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 40 points 2 months ago (4 children)

BREAKING | Iranian missile impact on an Israeli site in the southern Negev (Naqab).

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[–] HarryLime@hexbear.net 40 points 2 months ago (2 children)

Heaviest night of Israeli bombing across Tehran since the war began - State TV

I had written a comment that I felt that the ceasefire was actually a W for Iran, as it would mean Israel had failed at its main objectives in its campaign. But it looks like the ceasefire was just fake. Maybe one had been negotiated and the Israelis are torpedoing it.

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