this post was submitted on 16 Jun 2025
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Image is of destruction and damage inside Israel, sourced from this article.


Iran and Israel have struck each other many times over the last few days. There has been a general focus on military facilities and headquarters by both sides, though Israel has also struck oil facilities, civilian structures and hospitals, and in return for this, Iran has struck major scientific centers and the Haifa oil facilities.

Israel appears to have three main aims. First, to collapse the Iranian state, either through shock and breakdown by killing enough senior officials, or via some sort of internal military coup. Second, to try and destroy Iranian nuclear sites and underground missile cities, or at least to paralyze them long enough to achieve the first and third goals. And third, to bring the US into a direct conflict with Iran. This is because the US better equipped to fight them than Israel is (though victory would still not be guaranteed depending on what Iran chooses to do).

Iranian nuclear facilities are hidden deep underground (800 meters), far beyond the depth range of even the most powerful bunker busters (~70 meters or so), and built such that the visible ground entrances are horizontally far away in an unknown direction from the actual underground chambers. Only an extremely competent full-scale American bombing force all simultaneously using multiple of the most powerful conventional (perhaps even nuclear) bunker busters could even hypothetically hope to breach them (and we have seen how, in practice, American bunker busters have largely failed to impair or deter Ansarallah). There are several analysts on both sides who have concluded that it is entirely impossible to physically prevent Iran from building nukes.

I fully expect the US to join the war. I believe the current ambiguity is a deliberate invention of the US while they work to move their military assets into position, and as soon as they are ready, the US will start bombing Iran. After that, Iran's leadership must - if they haven't already - harden their hearts, and strike back with no fear, or risk following the path of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, either into either surrender, occupation, or annihilation. Every day where they do not possess a nuke is a day where lives are being lost and cities are being bombed.


Last week's thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.

Please check out the RedAtlas!

The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


(page 2) 50 comments
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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 11 points 1 hour ago (2 children)

This is Ukraine content but I'm sort of impressed by the German Leopard tank. This video shows Russian drones hitting a Leopard and it takes multiple drone impacts to kill it.

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[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 43 points 2 hours ago (6 children)

The true wildcard of this conflict is China.

If China truly wields its economic power, this conflict will END in 72 hours, and a truce signed by the end of this week, with American military presence being forced at least a thousand kilometers out.

Like, what are the Western countries going to do if China stops the flow of treats to their countries? The threat of rare earth export is a stern reminder of just how much of their industries rely on China. Good luck trying to invade China.

It’s only a matter of political will.

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[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 26 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

I googled "pizza index" and the first result was ProleWiki. Is it the same for everyone else?

(Well done btw)

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 17 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

Yes I get the same. Must be getting a shit load of google traffic because:

This page has been accessed 121,380 times

Google really favours wiki sites and it looks like prolewiki isn't getting slapped for being left wing or doing any bad SEO behaviour.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 41 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif responded to a post about a BBC interview with Iran's king in exile saying “grow some balls and go to Iran” and calling him a “bloody parasitical imperial whore.”

Reza Pahlavi is Iranian Guaido guaido

[–] larrikin99@hexbear.net 35 points 2 hours ago (2 children)
[–] insurgentrat@hexbear.net 12 points 1 hour ago

First they came for the people who make cliche comments...

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[–] hellinkilla@hexbear.net 23 points 2 hours ago (4 children)

So the various videos of bombs falling. I have a question about the ones that are being captured on cellphones. Especially when it seems like a group of people are hanging out on a balcony or near a window. Often the sounds they are making are like "whoa!!" and sounding excited, not particularly afraid.

How normal is this behavior? Are a lot of people spectating/recording? Prior to the motivation of getting a good video via camera phone to post on social media, did people always do this? Or are most people hiding under a table or in the bathtub or basement?

[–] Bisexual_Cookie@hexbear.net 14 points 2 hours ago

I would guess we humans just dont really have the same instinctual fear of these type of things as we do for say getting stuck in a tight space, there is no reason for nature to reinforce that. Of course once the bombs start dropping and you see people getting hurt and buildings destroyed, then you connect it with danger.

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 28 points 2 hours ago (2 children)

United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) has raised the Force Protection Condition (FPCON) from Alpha to Bravo for all bases across its Area-of-Responsibility.

I'm rate limited so here's an imgur link:

https://i.imgur.com/8HjzmXx.png

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 29 points 2 hours ago

Love how the army just calls anybody who attacks them a terrorist, even though attacking an army base is completely a valid target

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[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 19 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

Some sort of Rocket fragment fell. Not sure if Iranian or an interceptor

https://tankie.tube/w/bNU6USmEVHcQmgAmY6cuaq

Couple more videos of this fragment here: https://t.me/DocumentingIsrael/38512

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 24 points 3 hours ago

A few other smoke videos about but they're kinda boring so I'm skipping them.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 41 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

Sirens across Israel. Incoming missiles. People asked to shelter.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 29 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago) (1 children)

Iran's renewed drone-missile attack on occupied territories

🔹An informed source told Fars reporter: A few minutes ago, Iran's renewed missile attack began.

🔹Since the start of Operation Sadeq Promise 3, more than 700 drone attacks have been carried out on occupied territories.

حملۀ مجدد پهپادی-موشکی ایران به اراضی اشغالی

🔹یک منبع آگاه به خبرنگار فارس:‌ دقایقی قبل نیز حمله مجدد موشکی ایران آغاز شد.

🔹از آغاز عملیات وعده صادق۳ تاکنون بیش از ۷۰۰ حمله پهپادی به اراضی اشغالی انجام شده است.

Fars https://t.me/farsna/377566

[–] infuziSporg@hexbear.net 9 points 2 hours ago

Perseid missile shower. kelly

[–] Quaxamilliom@hexbear.net 25 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

Is the media black out in the zionist regime still going on? Have any of the live streams come back up?

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 24 points 3 hours ago

To my knowledge yes, they have banned foreign news from covering anything now, and social media is being strictly censored.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 19 points 3 hours ago
[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 18 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago) (1 children)

Several bus, yes i'm using it like sheep, buses is a silly word.

https://tankie.tube/w/e5Etcqa3bjVwxphHu8nv3J

[–] la_tasalana_intissari_mata@hexbear.net 8 points 2 hours ago (1 children)
[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 7 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago)

It's such a silly plural. A herd of bus makes much more sense.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 44 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

Thursday might be the day. They can't keep their mouths shut.

Israeli ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter alludes to an large-scale assassination operation later this week

"On Thursday you will see surprises that will make the pager (Hezbollah assassinations) operation look simple".

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 25 points 3 hours ago (1 children)

probably will be wednesday then

[–] Quaxamilliom@hexbear.net 24 points 3 hours ago

wednesday US time is thursday there.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 17 points 3 hours ago

Thick smoke at Herzliya

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 22 points 3 hours ago

Impact reports. Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Haifa. No video of impacts so far, this video of sky over Nablus, looks like cruise missiles, not ballistic missiles.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 17 points 3 hours ago

Another smoke video. I assume that people have been instructed not to post video of missile strikes and people are being cheesey about the wording of that to post videos of smoke after a strike rather than the strike itself.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 19 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

Video of smoke, Tel Aviv, proof of impacts at least.

[–] Awoo@hexbear.net 16 points 3 hours ago
[–] sisatici@hexbear.net 35 points 3 hours ago (2 children)

Btw India's population now exceeds china's population

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 22 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago) (1 children)

China’s birth rate has really fallen off the cliff, now second to last to South Korea among the major countries.

In 2014, there were 13 million marriage registrations. In 2024, only 6.1 million. Took only 10 years to get here. Quite fascinating if you think about it.

The government has just lifted the hukou restriction for marriage registrations in May, but it is doubtful that this will improve the situation at all. Young people are afraid to get married and have kids, mostly due to economic reasons and the lack of social welfare, the high cost of raising kids and starting a family, the increasing amount of working hours and less time being spent with family, and the recent property market crisis that has wiped out a lot of people’s savings.

Meanwhile, divorce cases have shot up for various reasons (still lots of data to unpack but some analyses I’ve read pointed to mostly economic reasons as well - increasing economic anxiety is taking a toll on the relationship aspect of many people’s lives).

The aging demographic will also present a huge challenge for China in the years to come as the dwindling amount of young people will have to work harder to sustain the wellbeing of the increasing proportion of retirees, and is one of the reasons why the retirement age is being raised.

As I’ve said again and again, this IMF export-led growth model needs to die (which, ironically, has become increasingly dependent upon now that the investment-led infrastructure building phase is truly over). Labor and resources should be allocated for social services and welfare to ensure the wellbeing of the people, instead of being wasted on churning out ever cheaper products that will only drag the wages down and further exacerbate the deflationary spiral - all to the benefit of Western “high income” countries that will continue to enjoy cheap Chinese goods and when necessary, hide behind tariffs to protect their own key industries.

[–] sexywheat@hexbear.net 10 points 2 hours ago (1 children)

Are there any indication that China is going to increase immigration to make up for the falling birthrate?

[–] xiaohongshu@hexbear.net 12 points 1 hour ago* (last edited 1 hour ago) (1 children)

It is one of the potential solutions but not one that I’ve seen discussed widely (also considering language and cultural barriers etc).

However, the paradoxical point here is that, at least with the current economic configuration, there is already a high rate of youth unemployment i.e. not enough jobs even for the domestic labor force.

Nearly 40-50% of the high school and university graduates who graduated last year could not find a job. And if these people, many of whom amongst the best trained and educated in China, have trouble getting employed, are there even jobs for immigrants?

Also, (not so) fun fact, about 12 million fresh high school and university graduates are about to enter the job market over the next couple months. It will be interesting at the very least to see how they fare this cycle, and if it is going to exacerbate the already intense competition amongst those seeking employment even further.

It is truly a strange system where working hours are getting longer, retirement age is being raised, and yet there is a lack of new openings for young people to contribute to the economy.

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[–] Boise_Idaho@hexbear.net 12 points 2 hours ago* (last edited 2 hours ago)

Broke: China reunifying with Taiwan to break the first island chain

Woke: China reunifying with Taiwan so China is once again the world's most populous country

[–] Z_Poster365@hexbear.net 54 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

So what did Iran get in exchange for giving Russia a shitload of Geran/Shahed drones and letting them copy the model for domestic production? Remember all those military flights between the two and the agreements on shared military research?

@MarmiteLover123@hexbear.net our resident missile sicko, do you think Russia could have shared the Oreshnik technology with Iran? Would that be useful to them as it could reliably deliver nuclear payloads (assuming Iran gets nukes)? Or is that role already covered by the Qassem Bassir? I believe Oreshnik has 36 submunitions and hits at higher speeds instead of one large payload, which would make it a better delivery vehicle. Outside of nuclear applications though, I don't imagine it would be very useful in this conflict?

If not Oreshnik, what else do you think was shared in this quid pro quo?

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