Donald Trump out there repairing international relationships in months that have been on the rocks for the last millennium.
this post was submitted on 30 Mar 2025
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He’ll be remembered as the man who united the world…against the US. Lol
What’s the over/under on trade shifting to the Renminbi before his term is through?
He’ll be remembered as the man who united the world…against the US. Lol
i've had this talk with a close colleague yesterday... they said something along the lines of "war is the father of all things, it brings progress",
and i replied: " well, if the US starts a war, it might well bring progress alright, but that progress would likely be to get rid of the tyrant that the US has become."
I'd bet a trillion dollars that the trade won't shift to the RMB. The main reason is simple, that's not what China wants. I'm so tired of western analysts not understanding a god damn thing about what China is doing. They see the US wanting the dollar to be the main trading currency so they assume because USA wants it, China HAS TO WANT IT BECAUSE CHINA HAS TO OPERATE EXACTLY THE SAME WAY. It's so ignorant it makes me puke. It's the same thing with them droning on and on about war with Taiwan.
How about we take a I dunno a god damn minute to see how China is changing trade? Currency swaps. I'm not going to delve deep into how it works, research it if you're curious. But basically the countries exchange like a trillion dollars and every time a transaction occurs, money is pulled out of that pool. The reason China loves this is because essentially no monetary transaction has occurred. If you were ever wondering how China keeps growing as their trades on swift go down, this is how. The best part is nothing is transparent about any of this. China can show or hide what ever the fuck they want. Which leads directly to articles about China lying about their economy. Which they are, as the IMF discovered China is hiding trillions and trillions of currency from these exchanges. This isn't me saying this, this is the god damn western IMF saying this.
So then, if this is working for China, someone needs to explain why the fuck China would even want to be the main trading currency.
So then, if this is working for China, someone needs to explain why the fuck China would even want to be the main trading currency.
I don't think they're concerned with currency so much as flow of trade, generally speaking. They'll happily trade under a multi-currency system, just so long as the money goes through their banks and brokers.
That's what I'm saying, yes.
I never said that China wants it. It’s only logical to use the currency from the most influential commercial nation in an international trade agreement. It is expected to become the de facto BRICS currency soon, with China having over 120 trade partners.
The whole point is it would severely disadvantage China for its currency to become the international trade currency. They would lose control over it much like the US does not really control the dollar.
BRICS wants a new currency to replace the dollar AFAIK.
Agreed. It’s not really China’s decision as much as it is their trade partners. Currency swapping is far more costly from an accounting standpoint, which is why many BRICS nations have adopted the Renminbi for trade.
Sure, because that's the western answer to everything. The west created this system, therefore we can't possibly see any other way of things working. China, developed their own way. Instead of trying to understand it, the Westerners default into the RMB must become the reserve currency, because the west is too ignorant to understand what China has created.
*Edit. Thus China is winning. The west doesn't even try to understand how they are winning, instead they use their systems to try to understand China. So all they see is what China wants them to see. Like China wants you to think their economy is weak and the west falls for it. It's stunningly ignorant.
Why are you so defensive about something I’m not attacking? I’m not suggesting this is China’s plan, but an inevitability of circumstance.
A currency must be selected for trade between two nations. US isolationism will continue to devalue the US dollar and reduce its commercial presence on a global stage to the point that another currency will likely be selected for use. China has established a commanding presence in global trade, so it’s only logical to assume that nations trading with China would use the Renminbi over the US dollar.
Because what you are saying ignores everything BRICS is doing. All BRICS nations are copying China's currency swaps. None of them are using the RMB as a reserve currency, except for Russia. If 120 nations can do it in unison, why can't Europe fall in line as well?
I understand what you’re saying, but I have read from countless economists that the ease of a reserve currency far outweighs the equality of currency swapping. I can provide many sources if you’d like to read them, but as you said, they’re all westerners.
And there you see what I'm saying. Let's ask this a different way, are any of those analysts living in a nation where currency swaps are common? It's like people with horse drawn carriages saying cars will never take off because the roads are made for horses. That happened, it seems insane now but many people at the time believed horses would be forever.
*Edit. This is also how the Russian economy didn't collapse and we couldn't understand why. We just kept putting more sanctions on to increasing uselessness.
At the end of the day, it costs more from an accounting standpoint to constantly swap currencies. It’s easier and more cost effective to buy when the most widely used currency is more in your favor and use that to trade with allies. China doesn’t really have as much of a say in how others conduct trade in BRICS. They would need to add a clause abolishing the use of their currency for trades that do not include China.
You are right in a sense. For example, Russia literally forced that situation. However, there simply isn't enough RMB globally for it to work. China would have to take on a lot more debt for that amount to be possible. China can choose not to as they've consistently shown. However, if globally the world decides in unison to ignore this, they'll deflate the Chinese yuan considerably forcing China to take on the debt. In many ways that's already happening to China's chagrin. However, I believe since China really doesn't want this they'll figure out a way to enforce currency swaps. I could be wrong obviously, but that's clearly the direction China wants to go.
finally some good news
i see that as putting animosities aside and cooperating.
background: china and korea have had a difficult relationship with Japan for decades, going back to some war when Japan invaded the other two and raped a lot of women and did other stuff they did not like.
Regional cooperation is necessary and should be a priority for trade. If only Canada had something similar - a strong country next door we can rely on 🤨 #elbowsup 💪🏼
