Something this article has not said: when is Israel going to open the border and allow aid in?
this post was submitted on 15 Jan 2025
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I'm pretty sure the Israeli government and IDF have no intention of ever doing so.
They'd love not to, but they probably will for the same reason they even accepted the deal to begin with. If we believe that the ceasefire deal is real, then something made Netanyahu think signing a deal now was a good idea. Signing a ceasefire deal this late into the game, too late to save Israel's reputation but without accomplishing the war's initial objectives, is strategically a bad decision so something must have changed and while until we know what that is we can't make predictions but I'm cautiously optimistic.
Note: I'm of course happy about the ceasefire, but with the information we have available I don't understand why someone who decidedly doesn't care for Palestinian lives (or really any except his own) would accept this deal.
Good news, but disappointing it won't start sooner. Some Israeli soldiers are going to go crazy trying to get as much civilian killing and brutality in as they can before Sunday.
Well, so apparently the first possibility I noted is not the case, and the early reports weren't just yet again blowing smoke.
So we're down to two alternatives - it's a legitimate deal that cedes at least some significant Palestinian autonomy, in which case Netanyahu will, as he already has in the past, sabotage it, or it's just a long term con job that will leave enough of an Israeli presence that they can shift to West Bank style incremental conquest.
Palestinians in Gaza rejoice in streets In Tel Aviv, hostage families express joy Israeli PM says some items unresolved
And he's already prepping his get-out clause, whatever "issues" he decides are "unresolved".
It’s the second one.
Israel is already doing incremental conquest in the West Bank.
In the end it all hangs on how much Trump will allow Israel to get away with. It appears far less than Biden.
Trump sold the West Bank off for $100m and has appointed an Ambassador who says the West Bank shouldn’t exist.
Trump got $100 million to sign a piece of paper. The Democrats are doing a genocide for free.
Sounds pretty obvious which is the lesser evil.
How does that make sense. It’s less evil to profit off it?
Signing a piece of paper for money instead of committing a genocide for free.
Who knows.
It's not so much what Trump will let them get away with, but what Putin will let Trump let them get away with.
Just left to his own devices, Trump, strongman sycophant that he is, would let Netanyahu get away with anything. But there isn't enough Israeli support for continuing to just grind away at murdering Gazans, which is why Netanyahu tried to expand it out to a regional war. And the problem with that is that any regional war is going to draw Iran in, and Iran is allied with Russia, so Putin isn't going to stand for that. And Trump is Putin's lapdog.