Could be small or big.
My answer has always been that, Linux can't handle everything I'd ask out of it that I normally can with Windows. I know the games issue has been progressing far from the days when that used to have been an archaic flaw with Linux for the longest time. Games might not be the issue except for some concerns I have for some games.
I was taking some time a few moments ago, to check if a program called Firestorm Viewer would work on Linux Mint which could've been my distro of choice. And the description written on the linux page described exactly the kind of concerns I'd have for compatibility and usability from going Windows to Linux.
They said that their viewer was tested and designed to function mostly with Ubuntu and while it could work with other distros, it's not to be expected to be smooth.
That's the kind of sentiment and concern I have always had with Linux if I were to go from Windows to it. There are programs and tools on Windows that I have that are used for specific purposes and I know they will not function on Linux. Furthermore, incase anything breaks down, any and all solutions would only be applicable to that thing that would be far easier to solve than just being SOL if I was on Linux.
It is something as a user that I just can't simply afford to deal with on a regular basis if I made the switch.
So while I may not have too much of an issue running games, I won't have too much of an issue using alternatives, I won't have to deal with the Windows ecosystem .etc I will just be running into other walls that would simply make me second guess my decision and make me regret switching to the point where I would dip back into Windows in a hurry.
My good sir, have you heard of a little something called the "Steam Next Fest".
EDIT: As for what distro to use, basically any of them. There aren't many bad options. Preferably go with one that the software you need explicitly supports though, that just makes things easier. If still in doubt just go Mint.
There definitely are a lot of bad options. But other than stuff like Hannah Montana Linux and Uwuntu, the worst options don't get recommended that often.