this post was submitted on 02 Oct 2025
574 points (97.8% liked)
RPGMemes
13849 readers
1214 users here now
Humor, jokes, memes about TTRPGs
founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Maybe? I don't think that was my issue. I think I was overthinking it and using the second "choice" as an event with separate odds.
The thing you're getting by switching is the benefit of the information provided by the person who revealed an empty door.
Before a door is open, you have a 1/3 chance of selecting correctly.
After you select a door, the host picks from the other two doors. This provides extra information you didn't have during your initial selection. The host points to a door they know is a dud and asks for it to open. So now you're left with the question "Did I pick the correct door on the first go? Or did the host skip the door that had the prize?" There's a 1/3 chance you picked the right door initially and a 2/3 chance the host had to avoid the prize-door.
Yeah I think the easiest way of understanding how monty affects the choice is to imagine 100 doors, and after you pick one monty opens 97 other ones. Wouldn't you want to change after that?