this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2025
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x86 dominates today. Its a smart move.
I don't think legacy software will keep x86 around and winning forever. Things change and its not always easy to see it before it happens. I believe all the reasons you listed will keep x86 around for quite a while.
As I told another, I want RISC-V to win so badly
I would argue it is incorrect to categorize x86 software as "legacy software". Outside of some Apple ecosystem products (which benefits not from ISA, but from vertical integration), all software/peripherals treat x86 (windows specifically) as the primary platform, with WoA being completely ignored in the vast majority of cases or treated as a low priority, tertiary platform.
Look at the ratio of WoA only games to Win x64 only games. Or WoA only hardware peripherals; they don't exist (just like WoA only games don't exist).
I've been tracking the release of Snapdragon X Elite pretty closely. The benchmarks on the CPU side are disappointing to say the least. Qualcomm also knowingly engaged in what is de facto fraud by showing unrealistic preliminary benchmarks using custom cooled laptops devices and running a "for benchmarks only" build of Linux (look at the state of Linux support on X Elite devices almost a year after release). GPU benchmarks are an even bigger joke. Even with alleged battery life benefits of Snapdragon X Elite WoA failed to materialize on a "apple to apples" comparison basis.
On a market share basis, they barely unable to hit 1% during the immediate full quarter following release, a bit of strange situation for something that supposed to be competing against a legacy platform.
And keep in mind, market share data for shipments/POS is typically on a gross basis, market research companies don't account for returns and don't make historical adjustments based on returns (this would be impossible for shipment into channel data). WoA devices were noted to have higher return rates. Qualcomm says it's not true, but they also have the capability (they have the data and the legal authority) to publish specific numbers and they didn't do it.
Note, I am not pro or anti anything. I care about lower prices for the same level of performance or features. I am pro intense competition where margin tend towards zero and companies simply can't increase them as all money goes back into R&D and maintain lowest prices possible. A real free market, not the polemical version pitched by oligarchs.
If it was up to me, I would change IP laws for computer hardware to make all relevant copyright assets (drivers, firmware, EDA files, internal tooling critical to delivery) and patents last 5-10 years. Essentially anyone would have access to everything needed to replicate a 2080 Ti (or Zen3 or M1 or Snapdragon 855) at the cost of materials (plus 2-3 % percentage). Literally running the Nvidia driver with minor changes to update the branding and copyright text.
When I say arm will win in the long run, I don't mean that WoA will have anything to do with it. WoA as it exists today will likely be abandoned.
I do think in the next decade Microsoft will focus on creating a full abstraction layer so it's software can run on any HW. This would be a longterm play. At launch, Would it be feature parity with what exists today...no. but over time it will build up the codebade, drivers, etc. To over take the current windows ecosystem.