Mods, if this is too offtopic, or potentially too incendiary a topic, I understand, I just do not know where else to post this.
Further, I fully agree with the sidebar rule here, let us please keep this civil and keep politics out of this to the greatest extent possible.
DISCLAIMER: Please, everyone and anyone, do not consider any of this discussion to be 100% confirmed fact, this is meant for reasoned consideration, not wild speculation nor justifying motivated reasoning of any kind or flavor.
Further: I do not endorse any political views of this guy, but I think his ballistic analysis is worth consideration.
Please at least watch this linked ~20 minute video.
The guy claims to be either a current or former USMC Scout Sniper, and while I cannot confirm this beyond a reasonable doubt... I also do not really have any reason to doubt that he is.
There is also a longer 2 1/2 hour livestream where this guy presumably goes into more detail, which he has linked on his YT vid page.
Essentially, the guy goes through 4 different camera angles.
He explains that the movement of Kirk's shirt is almost certainly not a result of any kind of body armor as is widely being speculated; instead, it is from how Kirk's lapel mic and earpiece and the wire for such were affixed to him.
He shows that the earpiece actually was captured flying off of Kirk's right ear, and that this is what caused the movement of Kirk's shirt.
But also... he believes that the shot did not come from from straight on.
He believes that the shot came from Kirk's right, and he believes that the wound which....featured the 'geyser' of blood coming out of Kirk's neck... he believes this was an exit wound, not an entry wound.
He believes that the entry would was somewhere on the right side of roughly Kirk's jaw, to behind or around his right ear, that the round traversed through Kirk from his right, to his left, and that it likely functionally killed him instantly either by obliteration of the lower brain, or severing of the spinal cord.
He also believes he may have captured a reflection of a muzzle flash, as well as potentially the muzzle flash itself... indicating a shooting position from Kirk's right... and that the currently most popular and widely accepted (?) idea that the shot came from 150 - 200 yards/meters away, basically from nearly directly in front of Kirk... cannot be the case.
Finally, be believes that the caliber used was not 30.06, that the visible wound is simply too small to indicate a 30.06, that it is more likely a lower caliber round.
At least this is inline with ... what I have been able to gather / opinionate based on the published image of what is supposed to be the weapon used in the incident.
Long story short, I think it is more likely that the rifle is not 'an older Mauser in 30.06' as officially described, but instead, more likely to be either a Remington 700 or Ruger American, a model from roughly the 80s - 90s - 00s, and that it is likely to be in caliber .270 or .243.
Hopefully I have linked this correctly, here is the start of a comment chain from myself, in another thread, a few days back, when I attempted to analyze the presented image of the weapon being claimed to be the weapon.
https://lemmy.dbzer0.com/comment/21325405
If you would, please discuss in the most objective manner you are capable of.
I mean, those are all reasonable points.
If it was the shooter's grandpa's 'older 30.06 Mauser', then yeah, its quite possible the ammo used wasn't exactly fresh, could be degraded, and that could explain a lower muzzle velocity, and thus smaller wound, than what you would otherwise expect.
Yeah I don't think a 30.06 entering at the point of the neck wound 'would have blown his head clean off', but it does seem like there should be more visible damage... particularly as an exit wound... but, I myself at least, have not seen any footage that shows an exit wound at the back of his neck or head or shoulder.
........
For reference:
This is apparently the recovered rifle.
I cannot make out exactly what make or model this thing is.
If it is actually an older mauser, its certainly been uh, renovated over the years... as most military mausers (k98ks) are not in 30.06, they're in 7.92 x 57 mm... i know a lot of folks had those, and did make modifications themselves, but you'd have to rebarrel and rechamber the thing.... and to me, that looks like it could just be a Ruger American or Remington 700 from roughly the 90s, in 270 or 243.
Apparently Mauser sold a bunch of sporterized, civillian versions of the K98 as the M98? Back in the... 60s 70s?
Maybe I am just too young or something?
I can't find much info on that, but apparently those were sold in 30.06, and then this would just be a more modern stock/housing from... the 80s, 90s?
.......
I don't know if this is the FBI/police/whoever being sloppy with reporting calibers...
Or, to throw out another plausible but uncofirmable 'conspiracy theory'... that could just be a dump gun. That is certainly a thing that happens.
The recently released text logs... could be fabricated. I said it in another commemt but ... Steve Banon and Candace Owens are saying they think the text transcript between Robinson and his... partner? lover? ... they don't believe it, because the writing is not the style, length, vocabulary, what you'd expect from a text message exchange, and it also basically just does the prosecutor's job for them, perfectly, hits and confirms literally every salient detail of 'the story' as it currently looks.
Fucking I dunno, man.
......
It also strikes me as odd... how did this gun get to the roof?
Did... he disassemble and reassemble it?
Did he he shove it in his clothes somehow?
Theres a video of apparently the shooter walking toward the school, and he seems to have a limp... but we also have still pictures of him roughly jogging up stairs... with bent legs and knees.
Did he... plant it there days earlier?
???
Also also... from what I've seen, the language thats been used to describe the rifle when it was found was that it was 'wrapped up', this is also the language used in some.of the released chat logs, i think.
Thats not wrapped.
Thats in a cardboard box.
... Maybe my autism is making me too picky with imprecise words here?
Again, I dunno.
.......
And... also, maybe this is just more annoying than 'odd' but uh... as best I can tell, we only have written reports of what was written on the casings, the shells.
We don't actual pictures of them, at least I haven't seen any.
It would probably be a lot easier to confirm the caliber of the weapon... if we just actually could see the casings, especially the uh.. rear or the face with the primer, whatever thats called.
.......
Anyway... yeah it is also weird that they have not recovered the bullet.
They probably should have found that by now, if the front on trajectory is the case... as you say, seems quite unlikely the bullet would completely obliterate itself... it should be somewhere, basically, either stuck in Charlie, or somewhere near the backdrop behind him...
...and yeah, I would tend to expect a 30.06 to stay mostly intact as at least one main piece, going through a human body at least... unless it like... tried to traverse through both femurs and the pelvis, or something like that.