this post was submitted on 14 Sep 2025
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i read some long form article back in ~2017-2019 about a looming "carbon bubble" that had metasticized and swollen across the financial system of the planet. that fossil fuels had become the defacto marker for certain currencies and that the price of these fuels had become decoupled from their real use value when one accepts the logic of the carbon cycle, where if all these holdings and leases are ever actually exploited, the biosphere will collapse and wipe out many institutions and financial systems.
that means these assets are worth considerably less than they are now valued and, if civilization begins to acknowledge this as part of a desire to not destroy itself, there will be a paradigm shift in the valuation of carbon based assets on the books. to own these assets is banking on collective suicide, and there would be a reckoning as democratically controlled "sovereign wealth funds" and other similar formations like endowments, pension funds, index funds start to unload them.
i accepted the logic but at the time it felt like wishful thinking. however, the fact that the PRC is driving an alternative development model for the rest of the planet in terms of electrification and renewables... i mean, suddenly its not really a pipe dream anymore, so much as a probable materialist pattern we can expect to see play out in the former imperialist powers as they decline and their economic systems collapse/fragment under the pressure of trying to maintain and gatekeep an energy development model most of the world has chosen to not get involved in, since it sucks major ass from well to wheel.