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Maybe. But if you look at the local elections from May:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg467m8mjo
...Reform got 31% of the votes cast. The chart of polls is pretty close, and actually slightly underrates them for May 2025. Now, maybe voting in the general election and local elections have different groups of people show up. I know that here in the US, that's a factor for midterm elections. That could affect outcomes in the general election. But...my guess is that the chart probably is at least in the neighborhood of being representative of their support in society. Or, maybe more accurately, of their support among those who go to vote.