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Yeah probably not, no.
At least not in the required condition to be able to reliably pull off that shot, in a single shot, and with a 30.06 round.
.........
By, 'an older Mauser in 30.06', I assume they mean a K98k...
... but,
Most K98k's are chambered in 7.92 x 57mm ...
30.06 is 7.62 x 63mm, in metric notation.
Totally different caliber.
There are not too many 'older Mausers' in 30.06.
There is a Norwegian variant that... I think in the 1950s, Norway took a bunch of K98k's and rebarrelled them into 30.06... and some enthusiast K98k owners in the US will do or have this process done themselves, or have managed to import one of these Norweigan ones... but that's pretty high levels of 'guns are my autistic hyperfocus' right there... not too many people actually go to all that trouble.
Anyway, any bolt action Mauser is gonna be like ... 70+ years old. It actually takes a fair bit of proper maintenance and storage to keep such an old rifle in good, reliable, working condition.
Go look on gunbroker or w/e and you can find many K98k's that just look rusted and busted.
...........
So... either the details we have here are wrong in some way... and its a more common, German chambered Mauser in 7.92 x 57 ...
Or this guy pulled off an extremely high profile assasination with a fairly rare rifle, a Mauser K98k rechambered/rebarrelled to 30.06 ... which would thus be relatively easy to trace back to a purchaser/owner/armorer...
Or its not even actually a Mauser, and is just... some, old, 30.06 bolt action rifle.
Sorry to link to the bad site, but here's an even bigger breakdown of actual Mausers.
https://www.reddit.com/r/guns/comments/17y2dk/a_short_actually_kinda_long_guide_to_mausers_now
....
Right, also:
At the range to the building where the dude was seen on the roof?
You are going to want a scope.
You're pretty much going to need one to make a shot as accurate and precise as the one we saw.
Keeping a 70+ yo scope in working order is an even more ridiculous idea than a 70 yo rifle... they tend to be very fragile, and of considerably worse quality lenses, have worse magnification, than decent scopes we have these days.
Mounting a scope to a b. a. rifle, back before everything went Picatinny rails... meant that basically every rifle had to have a more or less custom, bespoke, way of handling a mounting bracket, or some other wierd solution, usually only compatible with a small number of actual scopes, or just having the rifle with one built into it that cannot be easily swapped out.
I... really doubt that shot was made by 'an older Mauser in 30.06'.
Something is wrong here.
EDIT:
Ok, here is the image going around, apparently from the New York Post, apparently of the rifle.
That is not an 'older Mauser'.
Sure, it roughly resembles the style of bolt that a Mauser has, basically a 90 degree turn, L shape... but that is a modern polymer stock and housing for the weapon, and that is certainly a more modern scope.
As to it being 30.06... I cannot tell just from looking at it exactly what caliber that is, but I would guess it is probably a smaller caliber than that, such as .270... but it could be 30.06... I can't eyeball that with confidence.
My guess would be that that is a Remington 700, one of the most popular hunting rifles in the US, or at least something from the 7xx family of rifles.
The image quality is not great, and neither are my eyes without glasses, but that does not appear to be a Picatinniy rail... and poylmer stocks/housing has been available on the Rem 7xx series since the 80s....Pic rails seem to have started widely becoming popular (on Remington hunting rifles) roughly in the 00's, later Remington just started actually selling them with Pic rails.
So... yeah, rough guess, but I am going with some kind of Remington 700 or 7xx probably from roughly the 90s or early 00s, again, I honestly can't really tell the precise caliber from this image, Remington makes these kinds of rifles in a wide array of calibers, but it almost certainly is some kind of 'high powered' hunting rifle round.
Possibly a more seasoned hunter/rifleman than myself, or someone better versed in the smaller details could nail it down a bit more accurately... like uh, perhaps based on exactly how much of a cut out exists for the bold handle by what year, how flush it makes the whole rifle, or other details, maybe the trigger guard notably changed in shape at some year, or then sling mount points got moved or something.
Not sure how he would have even kept it hidden. The quality of the image is shitty, but it seems like it would be pretty difficult to hide it in a pants leg or something.
Not sure if it could be partially disassembled and hidden in a normal backpack? It looks like he might be wearing one in the other photo
These were apparently taken in the stairwell before the shooting, and the independent reported he jumped from the roof to another building before apparently jumping from that building and leaving the campus by foot... Apparently while holding that rifle?? Idk this just keeps getting weirder.
Was he jumping across rooftops carrying the rifle only to ditch it in the woods later? Why not ditch it on the roof?
Going up stairs with a rifle barrel down your pants leg would be challenging.
If that were him, then I suppose he could have stowed a gun in his perch at an earlier time when there was less scrutiny?
Or he could have been some sort of accomplice or witness.
Current model Rem 700s and Ruger Americans (which was my first thought) both have the bolt arm bent at about 15-25 from perpendicular rather than the 90 degrees of that pic.
However teh R700s have a screw off bolt handle so that is changeable (I think the american does too)
https://www.remarms.com/rifles/bolt-action/model-700/
https://ruger.com/products/americanRifle/overview.html?n=all
Although the r700 alpha hunter in those pics has a straight bolt arm.
Plausible it's an older model 700
I inherited a Remington 721 .30-06 from my grandfather and took it to a gunsmith to get it checked out. Turned out, that model has a flawed triggering system than can cause it to fire without even touching the trigger(!)
They fixed it, but man...
https://youtu.be/NlzoMqtDUxs#t=3m56s
Did you know that you can carry that rifle safely when fully unloaded?
Only way to carry it safely, apparently. :)
Well said
Normally I would wink and make finger guns at you as a way of saying 'hey thanks!'...
But that seems like a bad idea right now.
Lol, yeah I'm getting cautious how I word things to avoid misinterpretation all of a sudden too
I have updated my original comment with more of my best attempt at an analysis, now that there is apparently an image of the actual rifle.
Rem 700 is a good guess, my thought was Ruger American - it doesn't match the current model of either perfectly but as you say a 20 or 30 year old model will often be different, and yes no piccatinny rail in that pic.
Based on the exit wound shown in the video I doubt it's 30-06 to be honest - I think your guess of a .270, or maybe .243 would be my guess, particularly given how popular those two were 30 years ago for hunting. I guess could be .308 but as per other post in the thread the sort of damage I'd see on a pig or deer just doesn't line up with what I'd expect a 30-06 to do and still light even for 308.
Appreciate the extra detail.
I myself have a ... moderate amount of range time / time in the field, probably, by the standards of most actual hunters...
I've never actually shot a living creature, just like to go to the range occasionally to pop at targets, get that whole breathing zen thing going on.
But I do have a probably uncommon amount of gun related autism in terms of trying to accurately model and simulate and represent firearms in mods for video games and such, the engineering, the history of em, the wierd little nuances of shooting as a human experience that most video games dramatically oversimplify.
Anyway... yeah, glad you agree that is probably not an 'older Mauser', and I'm gonna go with you probably know better an estimate of the actual caliber, and yeah, could be a Ruger American from about 20 to 30 years ago too.
FYI the reddit thread seems to think it's a mauser 98 in an aftermarket polymer stock. The potato quality photo makes it too hard for me to work it - dunno if they've found a better photo
... Wha?
Based on what?
The stock/grip housing is not Kar98k style, it has a bit of a pistol grip -ish form factor, like more modern, basic, out of the box US hunting rifles...
I guess that doesn't disprove it could be a completely rehoused K98k, but it doesn't prove it either...
And... the likelihood it is some kind of completely rehoused K98k is really low, in comparison to it just being the shooter's dad's Remington or Ruger or something like that.
Can you link me this?
Do they actually have some specifc, unique detail that would be an unfalseifiable indicator of it being a K98k?
This is the reddit gun community here, I am guessing they are mostly try hard wehraboos, you know, Nazi enthusiasts, very rational and clearheaded, unbiased thinkers.
... fuck.
Not the fash end of reddit I avoid that - this thread
https://www.reddit.com/r/liberalgunowners/comments/1nez6z9/the_rifle_aledgedlies/
They're basing it on the tail end safety mechanism I think (I can't see it well enough to be sure), although honestly I suspect they're just taking the media report of mauser at face value and retrofitting what they see to that
Maybe what I should have more said is just that reddit is primarily dunning krueger sophomoric idiots who only understand things from the context of video games and purely abstract theoretical research, and have a tendency toward being hyperbolic and overconfident.
Very little practical, real world experience, very lot of e dick waving bluster.
That and... uh, maybe half of these are AI chat bots, who knows at this point?
Anyway... here is the single comment I've found so far that isn't either useless or bullshit.
from 'deLanglade1975':
This is the kind of seasoned hunter FUDD I was hoping would appear.
...
He seems quite confident that yes this specifically is a Mauser type of action.
I don't know how or why he can be that specific... but I am inclined to distrust my own relative lack of knowledge and experience specifically regarding this, over a more experienced rifleman who seems like he's got more experience with Mausers than myself.
...
He seems quite confident it is a Mauser that has been rebarelled, but disagrees with us, who think its likely a smaller caliber than 30.06, he think's it is likely 30.06.... he notes the profile is all wrong for a Mauser... when, to me, that could also well indicate it just is not a Mauser.
We also do not know if he has actually seen the footage of the shot impact, seems like the both of us have.
...
Looks like we all agree its some kind of older two piece scope mount than a Pic rail, with a fairly modern scope... but he thinks this 'hints' at being a sporterized Mauser, whereas I would think that would just hint at being any ole hunting rifle from Pic rails took off.
...
We also all agree it is an obviously synthetic stock, likely from the 80s 90s 00s timeframe.
He believes it has a common stock from the era that a bunch of these older milsurp type things were being sporterized.
...
But he also believes that the bolt handle itself is not the right shape for an actual Mauser style bolt handle, that the bolt handle of what was originally a Mauser type was heattreated and reformed into a significantly different shape.
I find that ... remarkably unlikely... to the extent that I would think it more likely it just never was a Mauser style bolt handle.
...
Fucking I dunno man.
Would be great if we had better quality images, and from different angles / lighting conditions.
Maybe the mismatch between the seemingly unblued barrel and the blued action could be helpful in narrowing things down, if investigated further?
Broadly agree with everything you said, and well spotted to pick this one - it certainly has the "sound" of authenticity, the level of detail def gives a bit of confidence.
I'd note that he said "With a new barrel, the rifle could be chambered in anything from .218 to .458. The claim of .30.06 is possible and likely correct." so he's just accepting the 30-06 because that's what's reported (which in the absence of evidence to the contrary is not unreasonable).
Then again, the other question is whether it actually was the weapon used - we can't trust this administration as far as they can be thrown.
The bolt handle being changed is entirely plausible, I could see my father pulling out the oxy-acetelene and bending a handle he wasn't happy without into a better shape. So the sort of guy comfortable doing a barrel swap and furniture replacement wouldn't be too bothered doing that.
What can I say, eyes of a marksman =P
Ahaha, ok, ok, enough jerking myself off.
Ok, so you find a bolt handle heat treat mod plausible.
I mean, I also find it plausible, but seemingly less likely than... not having that as an explanation.
I guess I am looking for some kind of... unfalseifiable, notable quirk of a specific model of something.
But... Yeah I guess the image is just too shitty for that... Unless maybe you could confirm or deny whatever he is saying about it specifically being a Mauser style action?
It could be a reworked Mauser as he describes.
That is not impossible, that's certainly possible.
I guess I am just also trying to factor a ... vague sense of how many of those are floating around, vs how many just... basic US hunting rifles approximately 25 yo.
But uh anyway, this may all become moot soon.
I just found a Forbes live update stating the shooter has turned himself in, posted it to a few larger News communities.