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Other data of note:
Mamdani continues to go beastmode with young people, putting up regime numbers with a 73% vote share of the under 29 demographic, and a still commanding 62% of voters between the ages of 30 and 44
Amongst all candidates, a plurality of voters believe Mamdani has best addressed the Israel-Palestinian conflict
The strongest position that can be taken against Mamdani IMO is for Adams and Silwa to drop out and they all + Trump endorse Cuomo. But even that seems highly likely to fail based on this data.
Even then, it’ll never happen. Cuomo, Adams, and Sliwa are ALL egomaniacs and are too personally invested in running to drop out.
On Sliwa:
Sliwa said that the only office he’s ever interested in holding is mayor of NYC, and there’s nothing Trump could offer him to make him not run, and the only way he’d stop campaigning is if he was dead and buried. Tbh Sliwa is the candidate after Mamdani that I’d say clearly loves NYC.On Cuomo:
Cuomo is Cuomo. He obviously won’t drop out and is too personally invested in this to revive his political career. He’s had a few minor endorsements and has far too much political and economic capital invested in his campaign to allow him to drop out, even if he wanted to. He has the tacit support of many establishment Dems, all invested in not seeing any ascendancy on the left, who can do basically anything but officially endorse him running against their party.On Adams:
Adams is marred in corruption and unpopularity, but hates Cuomo way more than he hates Mamdani. He actually doesn’t really seem to strongly dislike Mamdani at all. I think his political calculus is that he could try to run again next election cycle and would rather it be against Mamdani, hoping he becomes an unpopular mayor, and that would open up the democratic lane, republican lane, and center lane for him to pursue, after also not having the threat of Cuomo to run against.On Trump’s failure:
Trump’s best way to get what he wanted out of this would have genuinely been to endorse Mamdani as a poison pill. Thank god he and the people around him are too stupid to have done that. No guarantee it would’ve worked, but Trump already can’t run for reelection so the optics to his base don’t really matter, and it would really hurt Mamdani where his opponents needed it to: with the liberal/center-left Dems who just vote blue in NYC.On top of all that, it’s too late for candidates to have their names removed from the ballot. That’s pretty much the kiss of death for any anti-Mamdani coalition at this point.
Trump can, in fact run again because his first two terms were not consecutive iirc.
Pretty sure non-consecutive terms don't matter in the US. The 22nd amendment only refers to being elected no more than twice:
That said he could probably just run for a third term anyway and the courts would say it was okay.
Nah. The 22nd amendment says "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice".
Now if I wanted to subvert this and had control of the electoral system, I'd simply stack the electoral college so no one gets a majority, upon which the decision devolves to the house, and such a president is "chosen", not "elected"
That’s not true. The law says you can only hold office twice, not twice in a row
If all those votes went 1 for 1 to Cuomo, but that is unlikely. At least a percentage of them have to hate Cuomo to much to ever vote for him, and Sliwa voters would probably rather stay home if there isn't a republican in the race.
Also, every bit of Trump tampering makes Zohran even more the anti-Trump candidate.
Not to mention Zohran's advantage in the ground game and his volunteer army.
It is Zohran's race to lose. I just hope he is still surrounding himself with socialists and normal folk and staying away from the Dem establishment as best he can.
“Here are the names of some campaign volunteers who can really help you out, kid.”
Not to mention there is a HUGE percentage of the electorate who vote straight ticket and barely look at the names, if they do at all. Mamandi would only need a small percentage of those D voters to win.
He's already taken on some establishment people to help out his campaign I heard. It doesn't bode well, but I'll wait to see.
The establishment dems claim they have data showing Cuomo would win in this scenario. I expect them to try.