this post was submitted on 05 Sep 2025
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We have an enormous part of the population retiring right now, some are voluntarily working right now and hanging on.
But these people will sell their stock en masse once they retire to buy something more stable like bonds.
The only way the stock market can keep them is to increase the yield so much that they get FOMO and don't convert to bonds just yet.
This raises the stakes and winds up the stock market but now you have a HUGE portion of the population holding back a literal TSUNAMI of liquidation.
If the yield drops, if the apparent value slips, they will sell, the price will drop faster they will sell even more, this is how the next recession will happen, we just can't say when.
When prices crash,the oligarchs will be there to gobble up everything of actual value.
In short AI valuations are holding back the next recession, and if they don't deliver .. it might be a depression and russification of the economy ?
They're also crashing the stability of bonds