Some 'highlights':
Labour’s collapse in support since the 2024 General Election has been remarkable. Support for Labour has fallen more sharply after this election than it has for any other winning party covered by the BESIP [British Election Study Internet Panel].
Labour’s biggest losses have been to indecision. Over 1 in 5 of 2024 Labour voters now say that they either would not vote or that they don’t know which party they would vote for [my italics].
This is one of the few bits of 'good' news for Labour, in that undecided voters can potentially be won back. Potentially.
Labour faces more direct competition from the Liberal Democrats and Greens than it does Reform.
This corresponds with every single relevant data point and also common sense, but no one in Downing Street seems to have noticed.
The greatest number of supporters lost are those who want more spending, oppose welfare cuts, and are (relatively) moderate on immigration, which represents the core of Labour’s 2024 voter base [italics in original].
This corresponds with the last point: we're losing more of the left of our bloc than the right. However:
Instead, rates [as opposed to 'numbers' in the last point] of defection from Labour are highest among those who strongly oppose immigration and higher taxes. These losses are limited in number, given so few of people voted for Labour in 2024, but they underline the fact that Labour’s strategy has not succeeded on its own terms [italics in original].
This may partly explain the obsessive focus on the right of our bloc: we're losing that side faster. However, the strategy to fix this is not working and is in fact making the situation worse.
Most 2024 Labour voters believed Labour would handle the economy either fairly or very well before the General Election (Figure 5), but this confidence evaporated quickly. Now, only 24% of Labour 2024 voters think that they have managed the economy well since coming to power. We see that 2024 Labour voters are also unhappy with Labour’s handling of the NHS and immigration, but 43% rank the economy as their top issue: far ahead of health (9%) or immigration (11%).
Basically, 'it's the economy, stupid' is still true. If Labour don't sort that, they won't win back anyone, right or left.
IMO, Labour's economic plan hinged far too much on Trump not getting re-elected and, correspondingly, a stabilising global economy. Without that, they're fucked. This was a shocking dereliction of duty, frankly.
I think Labour often forget their namesake and their roots in the trade union movement and socialist parties. They dilly-dally - or just fail to deliver - on bold action that would do well for a broader cause because of a selfish desire to govern alone. Introduce PR. Reform the Lords. Introduce a federal system to address the problem of an "English Parliament". Tax the rich. Introduce UBI. All of these ideas exist, or have existed, in the Labour party, and could make such a massive difference to the lot of the many now and in the future.
And regulate the media to end the influence of right-wing billionaire owners (often foreign).