https://archive.ph/2wmoN

Switzerland in 3-Level F-35 Trap: First Losses Near $1B, Next Steps Look Even Tougher

If Switzerland ditches the F-35 for a European jet, it faces a three-layer trap where money and time are lost at each step. In 2021 Switzerland chose the F-35 to replace its F/A-18C/D fleet, placing an order in 2022 for 36 aircraft worth 6.25 billion Swiss francs (about 6.55 billion USD at the time). But now the country finds itself in a trap of this procurement. First, the contract did not include a fixed price, and the cost has already risen to 7.3 billion francs (9.1 billion USD). Second, Switzerland has been hit by the 39% additional tariffs on Swiss exports introduced by Trump. The blow to watches and coffee has become a major catalyst for the growing calls to cancel the deal. Yet whatever option Switzerland takes will mean losses of both money and time.

I am altering the deal, pray I don't alter it any further

The main problem is that the service life of the 30 existing F/A-18C/Ds ends in 2030. If Switzerland cancels the F-35, signs a new contract for an alternative, and then waits for deliveries, the country risks being left without a combat air force. Therefore, it would be necessary to invest in extending the service life of the current fighters. The government has estimated the cost of extending the Hornets' service to 2035–2037 at 0.8–1 billion francs (about 1–1.24 billion USD). That equals roughly 33–41 million USD per aircraft for an additional 5–7 years of service. But this is only the first level of the trap created by the decision to buy the F-35 three years ago. If Switzerland truly abandons the F-35 in favor of a European alternative, it will have only three choices: Rafale, Eurofighter, and Gripen.

Three years ago Switzerland calculated that 36 F-35s would cost 6.55 billion USD in total, or about 182 million USD per jet, including the whole package. The latest known Rafale export price, from the deal with Serbia, is 225 million euros per aircraft. That is not only much higher than the F-35's old price, but almost equal to its current cost for Switzerland of about 253 million USD (220 million euros). On top of that, Rafale production is already booked with a delivery queue stretching up to nine years. Gripen, on the other hand, is likely the cheapest Western 4+ generation fighter currently available, with a recent Thai contract priced at 138.25 million USD per unit without weapons. But the F-35 trap still applies: Gripen uses the American F414-GE-39E engine from General Electric, along with several other U.S. components. That means Switzerland would need U.S. approval to purchase Gripen — approval that may not come if the F-35 deal is canceled, straining relations with Washington. As for Eurofighter, its latest export price is unknown since it hasn't been sold abroad in a long time, but it is unlikely to be much cheaper than Rafale or F-35. All of this means that walking away from the F-35 program is not at all a simple decision for Switzerland.

it's probably never going to happen, but it'd be incredibly funny if Western countries start buying Chinese jets since the Western MIC is apparently incapable of actually delivering anything within a reasonable timeframe