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I do kinda fear JD Vance being president. It's mostly a "devil you know" kinda fear. There's the off chance that he's just the same same as Trump, but younger and, in the worst case scenario, more competent.
I could be wrong, but I don’t see Vance holding vast swaths of the American public in the palm of his hands the way trump does. I don’t get it, because I find everything about Trump utterly repulsive, but he does seem to have an almost preternatural sway over his followers. I can’t imagine factions of the right having the same fear of going against Vance that they do for Trump. I think there would be more opportunity to build coalitions against the march towards fascism with Vance in the top job. But maybe I’m just a dreamer.
Yeah pretty much my take.
Trump has 3 relevant characteristics, he has evil intentions, he's incompetent, he's popular.
Vance has evil intentions, he's less incompetent, but he's less popular.
The shit they’ve been setting up since regaining power will make popularly irrelevant.
The ICE budget scares me more than Trump or Vance.
The issue is that it isn’t that Donald has a magic sway over his followers. It’s that he gives them permission to be their worst selves.
He hinted, twice, to crowds that they should get the Covid vaccine. And was booed. Twice.
He’s riding the tiger and does an impressive job at it.
When he leaves, he will leave a vacuum. And that vacuum will be filled, unfortunately.
There will be tons of maga people who absolutely hate each other mutually backstabbing, and it just might be extremely tricky for any one of them to gain ground, even with Vance technically being the one moving up.
Even trump barely keeps them from one another's throats.
Hard to say ultimately, though no reason to outright assume it'll get worse if trump's health goes south, it seems to me.
I agree about the vacuum, I just don’t think JD is a clear successor to be the one to fill it. I think there will be a power struggle, which could present an opportunity to slow the momentum of the fascist movement.
Sure they boo when he says something they don’t like, but do you think even .000001% of them changed their vote? They probably just made some excuse like he said that to throw off the deep state, 5D chess, we all know the real truth, etc. What they give in return for that permission you mentioned is unwavering loyalty. Maybe he can’t lead them around by the nose, but he unifies them. You’ve got people who spent the last 40 years extolling the virtues of free trade defending an extreme tariff regime. You’ve got people who put “Character Counts” and “Values Voter” stickers on the car voting for a pedophile rapist who paid hush money for cheating on his third wife with a porn star. He has some kind of a hold on them that I think would be difficult to replicate. That’s what gives him a vice-like grip on the party. Any Republican official who dares go against him is quickly drummed out of office. The list is long.
Anyways I hope there is an opportunity to test our competing theories as soon as possible and if I’m wrong I’ll tip my hat.
I very much hope you're right that Vance fails utterly to pick up Donald's supporters.
Vance is pretty unpopular even with the Nazi base. Without the Führer, the whole movement will fizzle out.
Cults of personality tend not to last once the personality dies.
They don't tend to die of natural causes while in power though, right?
Franco, Stalin, and Tito all did. Though I feel a bit unfair putting Tito in that list.
Probably not so much fizzle out as implode spectacularly through infighting about who is going to be their next führer. Vance was handpicked by Trump and has the respect of nobody. Everybody in the RNC will try to become the new king.
He was handpicked by Peter Thiel. But you're right that he has as much of a chance to be the next Führer as Rudolf Heß had.
More competent should be better. It takes a special kind of stupid to betray your country as much as he has.
He might have a better position on the boat but we're roughly all in the same boat. If he causes a greater depression, that certainly won't be good for him. It'll be a lot worse for us of course, but that doesn't matter here.
The problem is Vance is the main one pushing the christo-fascist stuff. Trump is a greedy stupid narcissist which can (and has) caused plenty of short term damage. Enough short term damage can stack up to long term damage, but even that is recoverable. Over a long enough time scale foreign relations can be patched, soft power slowly restored. Nothing he has done domestically has been too catastrophic yet. Vance though has the potential intelligence to do some seriously long term lasting damage, the kind of stuff that would E.G. enshrine his particular flavor of Christianity as the national religion and make anyone who isn't male and white a second class citizen. Once society gets tilted in that direction restoring it becomes incredibly hard. Like overthrow the government hard.
Trump in contrast is basically a toddler throwing a temper tantrum. Sure he might break stuff, but broken things are easier to repair than things that have been maliciously constructed. The fascist systems Vance might build are far scarier than whatever Trump comes up with because what Trump makes never lasts. Just wait a little while and it will naturally collapse from greed, incompetence, and infighting. Vance I fear could make something stable though.
The silver lining in this I suppose is that Vance lacks the conman skills that have allowed Trump to weaponize morons and force others to go along with his delusions. Without the throngs of MAGAts supporting him Vance won't be able to strongarm the rest of the GOP the way Trump has which would hamper his efforts.
Christo-fascism will coalesce an opposition a lot more quickly than incompetence, corruption and narcissism. Nearly everyone hates those sanctimonious fuckers.
Peter Theil
Don't let your fears get in the way of your dreams. They are like moles. Only real way to get rid of them is systematically, one by one.