this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2023
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I can't get over the fact that this is the guy who was supposed to be some kind of tech genius.
He was never a tech genius. Maybe fairly competent in some areas, I'll give him that, but his main shtick was coming up with spectacular and insane ideas (who doesn't like rockets?) and having enough emerald money to pay engineers until they could come up with solutions that work.
So basically he is any eight year old with emerald money.
Have you seen starship?
Or his bid for the lunar lander?
It looks like a back of the napkin drawing that he gave to real engineers and gave them billions of government dollars to turn into something real, at least in the case of starship.
It’s a tube, the same diameter all the way up with a ridiculous number of engine strapped to it. You know why nasa didn’t do that? WEIGHT. The more shit you have to push, the less distance you can go. Elon’s napkin plan is to refuel the upper stage in orbit, something that has never been done before, and something that requires multiple launches per mission.
You know what happened the first time they launched one, it fucking exploded a third of the way to space. You know what didn’t explode? Any of the Apollo missions, except for Apollo 1, which caused nasa to commit to a “no second chances” philosophy. Elon’s philosophy with starship was “if it gets off the pad, it’s a success” would you step into a building if the construction foreman said “if it doesn’t topple over on day one, it’s a success?”
Space travel is hard, but we were doing successful missions that survived failure scenarios over 50 years ago. Rockets that were designed with slide rules and notebooks full of handwritten math. Spacecraft that were hand built by talented engineers and tradesman, all survived their missions on the first and only try. This bullshit move fast and break stuff strategy shouldn’t be applied to human Spaceflight.
He’s not even spending his own money. SpaceX is primarily funded by the US government. Starship was a government payed experiment, and watching it blow up in the sky and hearing everyone at spaceX cheer made me angry. Real research deserved that money, real engine tests should have been done. Instead, we got the most expensive firework in history because Elon wanted to launch that day.
Starship is an amazing chunk of engineering that really does have a shot at revolutionizing launch economics. Musk is an ass but SpaceX is doing some incredible work. Just getting off the pad with that thing was a win and returned a lot of valuable test data.
Getting off the pad is not a success, it should be a given.
This is supposed to be a human rated vehicle.
Where is the launch escape system? Cause they don’t have one.
And launching a brand new rocket and having it reach orbit the first time is not an oddity. SLS did it first try, the Arian family from ULA has been doing it for 5 versions of the rocket.
Building a billion dollar rocket and only being happy if it manages to get off the ground, only shows a severe lack of understanding of how engineering should work.
You know what would have given way more valuable flight data? A successful launch to orbit.
You know what would have given plenty of data without wasting tons of money and an entire launch facility? Test vehicles with smaller numbers of engines.
Oh, and a flame diverter that was a known basic requirement for large rockets over 50 years ago.
Starship’s launch was a failure. If SLS had blown up, heads at NASA would have rolled. But because Elon is some rich tech bro, he gets a pass to waste a billion of our tax dollars to make a fancy firework, that didn’t even self destruct right.
Maybe if someone at spaceX would explain how mass to orbit worked, they would have a better design for a rocket, but their current design is brain dead, and is never going to be rated for human flight.
If your willing to spend the money, testing things in practice can be much quicker than planning everything out. They admitted that they didn't expect it to reach orbit and that anything beyond the launchpad would be a success. I suspect that Elon pressured them to launch too early though.
The SLS is built using tried and tested technology, so it should have (and did) work, but due to (effectively) corruption it's stupidly expensive per launch.
The falcon 9 was 'impossible' to re-use untill they did it. It's now revolutionised the launch business. If they can do that again by doing the 'impossible' then it will have been worth it.
I do kinda agree with you on the lack of an escape system though, but if they can prove reliability on unmanned missions then it could work.
Yeah, making it reliable enough not to need an escape system is the goal. One of the original concepts was that in a stage 1 failure outside black zones (also, Starship on paper does a great job minimizing the black zones due to re-entry design), stage 2 will light up and go for a powered landing. A stage "explosion" is usually very energetic but more burny-energetic than explosive-energetic, because the fuel can't efficiently mix, which should be within the tolerances of the upper stage.
Planes don't need escape systems, and hopefully Starship can get into at least 5 nines of reliability, preferably more. It's never going to be entirely safe (planes have an accident rate around 1 per million flights, not many of which are fatal), but there's no reason to think that we couldn't get to that safety level in time.
I sure wouldn’t get on a rocket that Elron said was so safe it didn’t need an escape system.
I certainly wouldn't take his word for it either. Thousands of flights with a proven record would be my bar.
Ugh. Pass.
They claimed “we learned a lot”, but I’m skeptical. They could have learned a lot from not fucking it up too. The BS like not having proper shielding of the launchpad reeks of some idiotic decision that musk made and wouldn’t change his mind about because he’s a moron. The FAA came up with a long list of things they need to fix - and it was all things they should have known to have in place for the first launch.
Exactly! Everyone is acting like Spaceflight is some Brand new technology that SpaceX is pioneering.
No.
Spaceflight is a well understood field. It was well understood 50 years ago. We had put a dozen men on the moon by the time Elon musk was in diapers.
Reusable rockets aren’t even a new concept. McDonnell Douglas was testing propulsive landing with the DC-X in 1993. The space shuttle was fully reusable except for the fuel tank. Both of those were flying 20 years before spaceX landed a falcon nine for the first time. And neither of those concepts looked like starship
If a new competitor came to aviation and said they were going to revolutionize the industry with swept wings or some bullshit, and said it would make flying 10 times cheaper, we’d all call them idiots. But Elon said it with spaceX and suddenly he’s a genius and all his haters just don’t understand “science”(his fancy CGI render)
The emerald mine is a red herring, he didn’t actually get any significant (on this scale) wealth from it. He was just lucky to be on the PayPal team at the right time and that’s where his fortune got its real start.
The emerald mine paid for his Ivy league education, and multiple attempts to get an engineering degree. Also his entire upbringing was funded by it.
So much more than what anyone else got.
He also bought PayPal with the same money.
More than most, but basically nothing when we're talking about his wealth. The emerald mine has basically nothing to do with how he became a member of the 1% let alone the ultra wealthy. He basically grew up in an upper-middle class home and is one of the few who found massive wealth during the dot com boom.
Further Reading: https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/11/17/elon-musk-emerald-mine/
He repeatedly is stumbling into the same fucking roadblocks tech companies have struggled with for a decade or more, and he's walking through even worse thought processes when there's mountains of data and analysis and proof on what does and doesn't work.
It's like rewatching a train wreck in slow mo, but for some reason there's extra explosions added in.
How people thought, let alone still think, he's some sort of tech genius is absolutely beyond me.
It was a bunch of marketing hype all along, apparently. The more he's revealed who he actually is, the less most people believe that he's really good at much of anything besides hype and being pretentious. The past decade of fawning news articles about how he's the smartest and most hard working person in the entire world is even more nauseating now, in retrospect.
I believe he's only good at wasting money and destroying livelihoods. With 200 billion he should've fucked off somewhere as he's clearly not useful for anything. Even Zuckerberg and Bezos have their value.
He was good at publicity and being a front man... but now his deranged political obsessions have ruined that. I can't imagine why someone would have enough FU money for 1000 people, but be so obsessed with forcing his political will on everyone that he doesn't just fuck off and enjoy being rich. Drunk on power, I guess.
Well, he's got emerald-mine money to throw at problems, and he's been lucky. Money and luck are a potent combination, and can stand in for actual talent and skill in a lot of cases.
He's also had a good eye for tech investments in the past, though he seems to have lost that recently. For example, he co-founded OpenAI. (Sold all his stake in it to Microsoft before it hit the big-time, though.)
So... luck, money, and a history of investing in or founding tech companies that become at least moderately successful off the talents of others. Of course that's going to give him an enormous ego and make him think everything he touches turns to gold.
That is what he pays his internet meme troll group to spread, yes.
Charging users to use a web service that costs money to run isn’t exactly rocket science, it’s how the web should work.
supposed != fact