this post was submitted on 04 Aug 2025
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At that rate we reach 100% Linux users in 34 months. (50% in 27)
I'd call that quite significant.
... what rate are you talking about?
I am going to assume the other person's numbers were right but it honestly doesn't matter
422k people per month? That is 0.3% per month.
2.89 + (0.3*34) = 13.09. 13% after almost 3 years. Which... that honestly still seems high but I could almost see it if SteamOS gets enough coverage by the various influencers and runs on every handheld form factor gaming PC that isn't MS or Sony branded. And if the next attempt at Steam Machines actually gains traction and they take over a chunk of the console space ahead of the PS6.Or are you talking about compound interest? Which... I think even Activision and EA would call you crazy for assuming. Also I am not sure if the math actually holds for that either but I can never remember the simple math to represent that.
Also it is completely unrelated but I'll just add: I personally don't consider SteamOS gaining a significant market share to be "linux" any more than I do Android or consider Mac to be "BSD". Yes, they have common ancestry (and varying levels of shared kernel and libraries) but it rapidly starts creating walled garden issues as developers prioritize one distro over the other to an obscene degree. And... I think we can all agree after the past few weeks that GabeN can indeed do wrong when it is in his/Valve's financial interest to do so.
It's Linux because for devs it's a Linux platform.
And yeah 11% growth month to month compounds quickly. It won't hold forever but all things like that are sigmoidal Wich does start as an exponential growth.
Sure, but even using that absurd growth rate continuously it would still take an ADDITIONAL 18 months from what you originally said to hit 50%
log_1.11 (50/2.89) = 27.32
log_1.11 (100/2.89) = 33.96