this post was submitted on 29 Jun 2025
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chapotraphouse
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Iran can buy Chinese fighters can't they? It would be wild to watch Iran take out US/Israeli fighters with export models. I don't think you can claim air superiority with only anti air emplacements. I thought I had read that Iran really didn't have control of their airspace. Where is this guy getting the impression that Iran could just be winning next time?
I imagine both Russia and China are quite eager for an opportunity to test their weapons and defense systems against the US in Iran.
And get the technical knowledge stolen by Mossad given how deeply infiltrated and compromised Iran is? I wouldn't think so.
Russia doesn't have a ton of production capacity and last I checked s-400 systems are very expensive, India bought some and they're going to be delivered in future for example and given how much force the west would likely hit Iran with they'd need a lot of them to prevent them being overwhelmed and destroyed by drone and cruise missile volleys. It would be as much an opportunity for the west to gather technical data as either of those powers.
Another problem is as we've seen the zionists are firing munitions from outside of Iran's borders to clear the way. Iranians don't want to engage them in the airspace outside their borders as it risks bringing another country actively into the war against them and also don't have good radar visibility which increases the chance of these systems just being killed without doing much good.
China already got to test their systems with the Pakistan vs India situation I believe. Russia has already tested them against Ukraine.
Neither power seems particularly interested in enraging the US by sticking their neck out here. Both go out of their way to kick the can down the road and bide their time and strength. Russia is full of capitalist liberals who genuinely want to find a way back to some sort of compromise between full NATO membership and the reality that the US and NATO will seek to destroy them because they're not sharing Europe or central Asia and control of those or other parts of the world with Russian bourgeoisie. They want at the very least to PLAY Trump into not escalating in Ukraine and not slapping on more sanctions for as long as possible by not doing anything that would cause him to walk away from negotiations as like it or not they can't win Ukraine decisively in the way they want that doesn't end in a smoldering conflict that keeps flaring up without a negotiated solution and if Trump walks away they fear years more of fighting Ukraine in a drawn out war deep into central and eastern Ukraine at great cost and damage to their economy as there are like it or not problems Russia is experiencing from this conflict and it can't keep this footing forever in a capitalist mode of production. They were able to do a deal with the DPRK because it's already off the chessboard for the US given the DPRK has nukes so it didn't matter to the US that Russia agreed to defend them as it doesn't change a strategic calculus nor is the DPRK near as important to global control as Iran. China has its own reasons as in basically biding its time to build up its own military and because it still hasn't resolved Taiwan and still needs the US economically (which is why they're willing to do deals with Trump and restore access to critical minerals despite some of them being bound to be used in weapons that are likely to be used on China within a decade).
Neither has had a break out moment showing a turn towards outright hostility towards the US which this would be perceived as and both seem to accept the US ruled order of the world. For example despite the staggering sanctions on Russia they haven't moved to destroy dollar hegemony because they don't want to anger the US and Trump and because they believe if they don't they'll get their stolen $300 billion dollars back held by the west.
Russia already sells S400 systems to India and Turkey, so if they were worried about that they wouldn't be selling them externally at all. It's far easier for spies to gather data on these system in countries that are friendly with the west. Also worth noting that Russia already has next gen systems like S500, so what they learn using S400s can be applied to their design. The US gets to see older Russian or Chinese tech at the expense of exposing their best tech. That's a good trade. Recall that the primary weakness the US has is the fact that it's deindustrialized. Russia and China are able to produce new systems easily, the US is not.
Also, not sure why you say that Russia doesn't have a ton of production capacity when Russia is outproducing all of NATO.
The key would be testing against most advanced US systems like F35 and B2. These are the real danger because if they can slip in undetected they can deliver a nuke. Learning how they work and that you can track them reliably is essential. The trade off is that the US learns more about systems like S400 is entirely worth it because it's likely not possible to mitigate the fact that they can detect these jets. You'd basically have to go back to the drawing board and design a whole new jet at that point. And given that the US can't even get rare earth right now, that's gonna be a big challenge.
I agree that both Russia and China want to avoid a direct conflict with the US as long as possible. It makes sense to do so because time is on their side. However, a big aspect of using that time wisely is to learn as much as possible about the US. Russia was able to deal with DPRK as a direct result of US cutting Russia out of western financial system. The threat of secondary sanctions is what was holding Russia back before.
I disagree there, dedollarization is happening at a staggering rate right now and Russia is at the centre of that. Just because they're not making bombastic statements doesn't mean they're not making every effort to contain the US. Boiling the frog is the correct approach because it minimizes the risk of all out nuclear holocaust, while gradually constricting western power.
My prediction is that the collapse of the west will be internal and it will be driven by economic woes. Both the US and EU economies are teetering on the brink already, and this is translating into internal polarization as the standard of living continues to collapse. The ideal scenario for Russia and China is precisely what's happening now with US being drawn into protracted conflicts that stretch the US past its limits.
Iran really need to upgrade its air force as it is essential for increasing their anti-air capabilities. Aircraft can both function as mobile radars and have striking capabilities to target tankers and by making enemy aircraft busy and working on defensive maneuvers instead of just dropping bombs. B2 can be vulnerable to air to air engagements, especially long range air to air and surface to air strikes, since they rely more on their stealth capabilities than maneuverability.
That said, any anti-aircraft capability is still secondary to developing their nuclear program. The game will only be over after Iran develops its nuclear arsenal.
Today, Iran is very likely to win against Israel and the US due to their strategical depth and ballistic capabilities. Let's keep in mind Iran still hasn't used their top grade missiles. However any prolonged conflict would also destroy the Iranian economy, so it would be a Pyrrhic victory for Iran and for the resistance axis. This is why it is imperative that they can reach nuclear dissuation to prevent a direct conflict.
Yup, very much agree.