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My guess is they intend to salami-slice Iran into irrelevance. They'll regularly launch "necessary" strikes that will weaken Iran, take out IRGC generals and planners, take out missile production, take out nuclear program stuff and just suppress them and turn up the sanctions heat, more hybrid warfare, prepare sectarian factions to rise up into civil war and then launch that sometime in the next 10 years with an eye towards the next 4 years before they attack China. This will mostly be done by the zionists with a heavy assist from the US via refueling, intelligence, re-armament, etc.

It will be Syria and Libya playbook as many including myself have said before. They will use ethnic minorities and they will use surgical strikes to weaken the Iranian government by taking out key figures in fighting this insurgency. ISIS will pop up again conveniently doing the west's work for it, perhaps a branch of Al Qaeda as well.

Frankly it may be Iran is already doomed. They're surrounded by zionist collaborator nations like Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, etc filled with troops who would fight on the side of the US and the entity, filled with anti-air batteries, filled with US troops and bases. Their threats of closing the strait would harm China and other multi-polar powers at least as bad if not much worse than the US and hurting Europe can hardly be seen as a goal as they are gluttons for pain as we've seen with Ukraine and will happy destroy what's left of their industry and transfer the wealth to the US on command. With the collapse of their allies in Syria and Hezbollah/Lebanon and with Hamas already fighting as hard as it can they may simply not have much they can actually do that isn't going all in and provoking the US to immediately destroy as much of their standing military as they can.

Things are looking not great for the resistance. If Iran falls that's another dagger at Russia's belly and contention of the Caspian sea by NATO, it's the final domino in blocking China's belt and road and making it irrelevant for maintaining China as anything but a very regional north-east Asian power very susceptible to a sea blockade and embargo. I feel at this point China is perhaps being foolish or at least recklessly playing right up to the line but maybe they know more than I do. We must also acknowledge Ukraine has held out better than many of the hopium boosters were saying they would even a year and a half into the conflict and there is a chance that their lines never truly break and result in a rout for their army. That Russia by next year perhaps secures the oblasts that were historically Russian and voted to join Russia and at that point sues for peace without denazification, without disarmament of Ukraine, and without a solid commitment from the west they won't eventually try and incorporate that rump state into NATO or reignite the conflict. I can't help but wonder if part of the point of Trumps alleged attempted rapprochement with Russia is just to buy time and fool Russia again like with the Minsk accords, to prevent Putin from committing to an offensive when Ukraine is most weak and western production can't keep up and keep that conflict burning longer without straining NATO arms production.