this post was submitted on 14 Jun 2025
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Do people actually think the middle east conflict will start ww3?
there's a low likelyhood.
The key question is what will happen to Israel in the future?
In my opinion, Israel cannot stay in the middle east for much longer. They have to move out.
Israel is so universally hated in the middle east, it's difficult to put into words. (at least that's what i got from other people's messages). it's difficult/impossible to conceive a long-term stability in the region with Israel in it. and israel knows this, of course.
The question is: what will israel do? Will it escalate the conflict to try to grasp to power through military dominance in the area? Or will it soften its grip and let go of control in the middle east?
I think your souces for whats actually happening is clouding your judgement. There is no world where isreal is forced out of the middle east. They've made the strategic moves to take those options off the table.
Isreal is more than capable of defending themselves with us support. They have destroyed almost all major threats in rhe region with Iran being the last one.
Arabs in the region will never forget this war. But Arabs also hated isreal before so I doubt much has changed on the perception front.
Most likely isreal will go back to normalisation with governments in the region since all major terrorist factions are virtually eliminated. If they can get regime change in Iran there is a good chance things will stabilise. Maybe they will need to destroy the houthis as well.
I just want to respond to my own comment with some follow-up thoughts:
Israel is mostly backed by the US to "protect US interests in the area", which i translate as: mostly oil.
Since the transition to renewable energy is happening at an exponential speed, i guess that the consumption of fossil fuels could be reduced by 2040 by 90%. That would make the US completely independent from oil from the middle east, and the US would no longer need Israel, which would weaken Israel's grip in the region. That is why i think they would retreat, instead of attack.
Just my two cents.
Israel is currently attacking Iranian Oil and Gas.
Iran could retaliate by closing the Persian Gulf, where 20% of global Oil and Gas shipping goes through and to weaken US, UK and other support for Israel. This could bring these countries onto the plan, but also Israels allies UAE and Saudi Arabia. When more countries join against Iran, China could feel threatened, or see an opportunity in the distraction, Russia will certainly ramp up its efforts in Ukraine. The economic fallout of the explosion in oil and gas prices globally could tip over other conflicts into wars.
This can definitely spiral into another world war. Remember that WW1 was caused by serbian seperatists assasinating the austrio-hungarian crown prince.
WW2 started as a series of separate, regional conflicts that gradually pushed the world to a major war. Japan in China, Italy in Africa, Germany in Central and Eastern Europe.
The world didn't just wake up on Sept 1st 1939 and say: I guess we at war now. These things always start this way and spiral out of control.
Even the world's first global conflict, the War of Spanish Succession started with French and Austria fighting over the crown of Spain but various other European powers were dragged in as various regional conflicts coalesced into a major war.
Well, there is Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, Sudan, Libya, USA-Canada/Greenland/Mexico...
Iran can draw more aggro if they want but theyre getting pretty fucked as is and probably dont want anymore countries pilling on.
China doesnt care about iran and theyre winning by not being involved while the other super powers get bogged down in war and internal conflict.
Russia doesnt have anything left to increase vs Ukraine unless it goes nuclear.
WW1 was started because both Austria-hungry and Germany (partly) wanted a war. The assassination was the excuse and not the reason.
That's not the whole story.
Let's quickly remind ourselves of what was the situation before the war:
Britain had the strongest naval forces and had a rule saying, that their naval forces should be as strong as the two (other) strongest naval forces together. Germany meanwhile was massively expanding its naval forces to be able to compete with the UK. This caused politic tension and an arms race between Germany and the UK.
France has be politically isolated since the 1870s, but due to the German monarch not caring about the contracts that isolated France, that lost a war to Germany, ran out. At the same time the contracts that caused a situation where if anyone in Europe would have started a war would immediately pull 2-3 other countries into it ran out.
Russia was experiencing inner political tension due to the citizens not being satisfied with the Zar ruling. To counter this it tried shifting the focus away from the inner political problems by gaining influence in the middle east
Autria-Hungary tried to gain more influence in the middle east.
After the assassination Austria Hungary gave Serbia an Ultimatum to allow their forces and government officials to operate in Serbian territory to catch the murderer, who's suspected to be supported by Russia IIRC, and threatening a war if they didnt comply with the Ultimatum. Germany gave Austria-Hungary safety guarantees stating that if they were to go to war with Serbia, they would support them. Ultimately it came to a war with Serbia. Causing Russia to join, since they also wanted more influence in Serbia.
Germany then decided to Attack France in an preemptive Attack, since France hated Germany due to the lost war and the political Isolation caused by Bismarck. Since the German border with France was heavily guarded they decided to attack Belgium first and the go to France to avoid having to fight against a lot of bunkers. The attack against Belgium caused the UK to join the war in order, who were willing to go to war due to the German threat to their naval dominance.
It isn't really that easy to say who caused the war, since it was a very complex political climate where everyone was willing to go to war to defend their own interests.
The glider attack happened in ww2, not ww1.
If you are from Luttich as you say, then in ww1 the part of Belgium where you're from, was a part of Germany. The German speaking parts of Belgium, namely Eupen and Malmedy, were only allocated to Belgium with the treaty of Versailles (1919). But since you are from the German speaking part of Belgium, you of course already knew this.
For those confused by the place names: in Belgium there is a city called Liège (French speaking) in a province called Liège. Luttich is the German name for Liège. Eupen and Malmedy became a part of the province of Liège in the 1920s.
This is a very novel take of historical revisionism, first time I've encountered it.
Do you have any sources other than yourself that support your claim that ww1 was started by Germany attacking Belgium?
That's an article about a military campaign in a war that was already on going. The article even has a section called "outbreak of the war", in which the actual outbreak of the war is explained (which was not Germany invading Belgium). The article does not in any way support your claim that Germany started world war 1 by invading Belgium.
Why are you linking articles and then misrepresenting what is in those articles?
Bravo, another vague link. Can you explain how what you link to supports your claim?
1 Wikipedia is a garbage source.
2 Russia/Ukraine has nothing to do with it.
The wiki article is actually very good. The historical revisionist is just claiming that it says things which it definitely does not.
He is indeed a revisionist or more probably ignorant and stupid from seeing his other comments.
In this case the wiki article looks OK but I stand by my claim about Wikipedia.
It's useful to look up stuff about flowers, geography, mathematics and other stuff.
But if the subject has the slightest political relevance it can't be trusted.
You are OC not right, especially since you're putting words into my mouth I didn't say.
Clearly mentioning facts that show you are wrong on WW1 Germany is not 'defending them'.
"Russia’s invasion doesn’t have an historical conect they’re inherently evil "
Again didn't say anything like that, only that it has nothing to do with WW1
hope you crash
What are you saying? Definitely not 'caused by'.
It was caused by many factors and events.
This was a result and not a cause.
You are also completely wrong that 'Nobody was fighting before that'.
There was already fighting in eastern Europe.
Could easily be the start of it. If the US civil wars with the orangutan and his ilk, and China starts to fuck with Russia because Xi recognises Putin as a paper tiger dumbass (though China's army is also paper tigery, so...) or just escalates their fighting with India...
Then... That'd be most of the world involved in war.
Please be respectful of orangutans.
China has absolutely no reason to invade the pile of self-extracting resources that currently can only sell to them.
I imagine Xi would if he thought he could take over Russia. It should be obvious China does not respect other nations' boundaries or sovreignty. If Russia shows it's that much weaker than China after the Ukraine BS, I would not put it past Xi.