this post was submitted on 24 Apr 2025
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I mean especially in hindsight it absolutely was dumb, I can’t argue against that. And it was certainly a mistake to bet so much without having cover.
At the time I agreed with this person that their analysis of RIM as a dead company walking was correct. In fact I was likely partly responsible for their outlook (though not their reckless position).
As you say —the national interests and hope in RIM’s success kept the price at irrational levels. Much like I argued here that Tesla is staggeringly overvalued today… which is why I made the comparison in the context of someone wanting to short Tesla today. It doesn’t matter if you’re right, for shorts it also matters when you’re right.