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As the fallout continues from Jordan’s recent security crackdown on a militant cell accused of manufacturing missiles and drones, officials remain tight-lipped about why a court-banned branch of the Muslim Brotherhood continues to operate freely.

The group, declared illegal by a final court ruling in 2020, has maintained its political activities with apparent impunity—a contradiction analysts say points to selective enforcement of the law.

While Jordanian authorities have detained extremists over what was described as a “chaos plot,” they have avoided confronting the unlicensed movement. The Brotherhood’s continued presence, despite Article 159 of the penal code criminalizing illegal associations with potential jail sentences, has puzzled observers.

Analysts say the government’s “soft containment” approach reflects a broader political culture in Amman that avoids clashes with groups enjoying popular support, even if that means ignoring binding court decisions.

Critics argue the state’s flexibility towards the Brotherhood undermines legal consistency and raises questions about the rule of law, especially as other groups face swift and public consequences.

Jordan’s government appears to have taken a markedly tougher stance following the recent exposure of the militant cell allegedly backed by foreign actors and accused of planning attacks with home-built missiles and drones targeting domestic sites—not under the pretext of “supporting the resistance in Gaza”.

The discovery of the plot has prompted a reassessment within the country’s decision-making circles, which are now closely watching for verdicts from the State Security Court—the judicial body with jurisdiction over terrorism and national security cases.

While authorities have clamped down on the immediate threat, they have stopped short of confronting the unlicensed Muslim Brotherhood group and its political wing, the Islamic Action Front.

Analysts say officials are treading cautiously, wary of provoking parliamentary unrest or street mobilizations that the faction could spearhead if directly challenged.

The government’s current posture suggests a strategic pause—one that balances national security concerns with the potential political fallout of taking on a well-rooted opposition force.

Jordanian decision-makers, however, are stepping up preparations on multiple fronts as the country braces for a possible legal showdown with the Brotherhood.

Authorities are weighing the implications of formally designating the Brotherhood as an unlicensed entity, a move that would entail shutting down its activities, seizing its assets and properties, and treating any political statements or public events linked to its members as violations subject to prosecution under the penal code and counterterrorism laws.

Behind the scenes, government institutions are working to draw a legal and operational distinction between the Brotherhood and the Islamic Action Front, which remains registered under the country’s political parties law.

This delicate balancing act hinges on upcoming hearings at the State Security Court, expected to begin next week. However, officials fear that any legal escalation could spark backlash, including street protests or social media campaigns led by the Islamic Action Front.

Analysts say such a scenario could force authorities to take more decisive measures, including dissolving the party itself, in a bid to dismantle what critics view as a monopolized Islamist platform and reassert control over religious political representation in the kingdom.