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the trump administration seems to have a genuine goal here of wanting to restore domestic productive capacity, but they're all true believers in their own particular and sometimes conflicting kinds of farts, and trump is well known to be someone who gives a lot of weight to a well reasoned argument coming from whoever happens to be directly in front of him at the time. shorting the economy was a side benefit.
I think its less so restoring domestic production as it is just trying to ween America off of Chinese goods. If the US were to go to war with China at the same time as they first lose out on all that stuff it would be like losing the war before it started. So i think theyre trying to do a controlled version of it. They might walk these back even more, then do some more next year, just causing random shocks to the supply chain to see how it reacts and do a kind of economic shock therapy.
I really do not think it's going to work, but that does seem to be their plan. I think the whole like shorting the economy thing is the people who aren't really read into the entire plan just doing their typical grift. Its a good cover for it too. Weaponized incompetence and all.
They'd be fine with like Mexico, or Canada picking up the slack production wise. They probably want it to be domestic, but i doubt they'd be that broken up if it was Mexico. It doesnt need to be everything anyway just the basics, and stuff the military needs.
I'm guessing there are certain people observing the exact effects on actual supply chains these tariffs are having, and they are making a list of the things they need to find alternative sources for during a war. If i had to guess on a time table they want to be at war with China by like 2030-2035. China seems to realize this too, and is preparing. Not just to defend themselves, but to defend all of SEA.
Bit idea: see if you can convince libs that these tariffs are a good thing by making this argument that they're war preparations and appealing to their bloodlust for China.