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'There Will Be Blood': JPMorgan Hikes Odds of Trump-Triggered Recession to 60%.
(www.commondreams.org)
this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2025
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It's 100% they are just too scared to say that
You can't say anything is 100% with a chaotic and erratic president. There's always a chance that Trump will undo everything next week and things will stabilise for a short while. That chance might be very low, but it effectively invalidates 100% prediction.
I'm afraid you're wrong here actually. Being arbitrary and mercurial means no one will risk investing in the US, as policies may be created or undone at any moment. The only way this goes away is simply that he goes away. The risk is what is creating the certainty here.
It still isn't 100%
There's also an even more remote chance Republicans in Congress grow a spine and take away Trump's ability to set tariffs or the Supreme Court rules the "emergency" invalid.
Ok, 95%. Trump undoing things doesn't actually help "confidence in the market" though, it might even cause or chaos shorter term.